Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/13920
標題: 梨山即時監測管理分析系統之建立
Establish Real Time Monitor System In Li Shan
作者: 張恭誠
關鍵字: Neural Network;類神經網路;Expert System;Monitor System;Time Series;專家系統;監測系統;時間序列
出版社: 土木工程學系
摘要: 
梨山是一個極具有觀光及農業價值的地方,目前人口約有2000人,但在民國79年4月的時候曾經發生大規模的地滑,造成交通中斷及部分建築物損害,之後政府便積極推動地滑地的整治,為了長期追蹤設置了許多的監測站,而迄今尚未有一套整合監測資料並能即時分析的監測管理系統,本文嘗試著建構一套能夠由梨山上自動監測站的監測數據以小時為單位來即時分析梨山即時的危險狀態。
而在整個危險基準值之設定,除了參考梨山地滑區管理準則對於基準值的設定及其他對地滑監測所做的研究外,以梨山監測站所有的監測數據對於基準值作驗證,修正原本不合理的雨量基準值,決定地表伸縮計的基準值來使基準值適用於梨山並提出地表傾斜儀數據的不合理。
另外本文嘗試用類神經網路預測的方式,重新對資料取樣,並修改類神經網路的結構以及參數,得到最佳預測網路,由已知的地下水位及雨量預測下一小時的地下水位,進而能夠預知下一小時的危險狀態。
而本系統系參考專家系統的概念讓非研究領域的人也能夠使用這套系統的原則建立即時監測分析系統,而當坡地災害發生時這套系統能夠讓管理者對於梨山狀態能有最快最充分的掌握,進而下達適當指示來處理危機,而最後希望這套系統能夠真正應用到梨山地滑災害的管理,期望能對坡地災害的預防管理方面及緊急狀況處理能有所貢獻。

Li Shan is a great place to develop tourism and agriculture. The population in Li Shan is about two thousand now, but the grand-scale landslide which occurred in April 1990 caused road service interrupted and some buildings cracked. The government has set up many monitor stations to trace the landslide. However, one real time analyze system is still lacking. The goal of this research is to establish one system to analyze the dangerous level at Li Shan from the monitor data getting from auto monitor station at once
Setting the standards of danger was referring to the standards that set before, and verifying by all of the monitor data getting from monitor stations in Li Shan. In these standards, the standard of rainfall have corrected and it has become more reasonable.
Base on the proposed neural network model, it can use the data we have known to predict groundwater level next hour. In this way, it can predict the dangerous condition and let the manager deal with the problems in a short time. From the concept of Expert system, most people can use it and avoid some damages.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/13920
Appears in Collections:土木工程學系所

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