Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: `http://hdl.handle.net/11455/15162`
 標題: 地滑地排水設施成效檢定方法研究Evaluation of the Effectiveness for Drainage Facilities Applied to Slopeland Stabilization 作者: 陳志忠Chen, Zhi-Zhong 關鍵字: time series;時間序列;transfer function;intervention model;ARIMA(p;d;q) model;landslide area;轉換函數;介入模式;單變量ARIMA模式;地滑地 出版社: 土木工程學系 摘要: 梨山地區為典型之崩塌地，暴雨時地下水位上升，進而增加邊坡之不穩定性。本研究針對梨山地區設有全自動監測系統之六處滑動土體，利用時間序列分析法分析其在各滑動土體整治工程中之排水設施進行後降雨與地下水位間之關係，並對現地水文地質及現地水位變化之影響進行分析探討。 研究之方法以Box 和Jenkins於1970年提出之自迴歸移動平均整合模式（ARIMA模式），分別建立降雨及地下水位變化之關係及評估排水工程對地下水位之衝擊影響程度。先對降雨部份作出合理單變量模式，再建立降雨與地下水位變化之轉換函數。進而以轉換函數模擬地下水位變化，再以各主要排水設施完工日期為介入模式的起始時間，分析各區排水工程之成效，最後綜合判定梨山地區排水工程進行後具代表性之轉換函數。 研究結果顯示利用時間序列之轉換函數及介入模式討論排水後降雨與地下水位變動之關係及地下水位因為排水工程所造成之改變情形，對於設有自動監測系統之區域應屬可行。各區普遍因為排水工程進行後而加速消退的時間。並且在排水設施進行後，長期地下水位明顯下降。最後，利用頻率年暴雨資料及最佳轉換函數對各區未來可能上升之地下水量加以預測，並可依此應用在不同頻率年暴雨時，地下水位上升之邊坡穩定分析，以便於地滑地預警系統之訂定。In Li-San landslide area, whenever there is the torrential rain, the groundwater level will rise, and then the unstableness of the slope edge will be increased. This research aims at Li-San area's six places' sliding ground, equipped with the automatic observing and measuring system. Time series theories are applied to analyze the relation between the rainfall and the groundwater level after the operation of the drainage system. The research method is based on the ARIMA model,which was introduced by Box and Jenkins in 1970, to establish the relation between the rainfall and the groundwater level's change, and to estimate the influences of the drainage system on groundwater level. Use the transfer function to simulate the ground water level's change. And then, set the date of each main drainage system's completion to be the intervention model's starting time to analyze the effect of each area's drainage system. Finally, estimation are made completeness with the representative tranfer function after the operation of Li-San area's drainage system. The investigation shows that using the time series analysis to discuss the relation between the rainfall and groundwater level's change and the influence of the drainage measures to the groundwater level are applicable to the area with the automatic observing and measuring system. Each area's drainage speed is generally quickened because of the operation of the drainage measures. Moreover, after the operation of the drainage system, the groundwater level is obviously lowered in a long-term. At the end, use the information of the years with the frequent torrential rain and the best transfer function to predict each area's possible rising quantity of the groundwater in the coming future. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/15162 Appears in Collections: 土木工程學系所