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標題: 類神經網路模式應用於颱風暴潮時序列預測
Apply Neural Network Model for Storm-Surge Time-series Predition
作者: 陳宣志
Chen, Hsuan-Chih
關鍵字: Neural Network;類神經網路;Storm-Surge;Time-series;颱風暴潮;時序列
出版社: 土木工程學系所
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The storm surge is caused by meteorological factors, which is defined by the difference between the actual observed water level from the tidal gauge and the predicted astronomically-induced tide during the storm. The estimation of the storm surge is essential for the planning of countermeasures against coastal flooding. During the past several decades, the numerical hydrodynamic models or the empirical methods were conventionally used to estimate the storm surge. In this thesis, an application of the artificial neural network (ANN) with the back-propagation procedure for forecasting the storm surge is proposed. Based on the learning and the testing from the data of storm surge observed at Tanshui Estuary station, the ANN model is well established. The results show that the storm surge at time t for a considered station can be predicted using the inputs including the storm surge at time t-1 and the local meteorological conditions (atmosphere pressure deviation, wind speed and wind direction) at time t. Based on the 3-hours forecasting of the local meteorological data provided by Bureau of Meteorology, this model can be extended to forecast satisfactorily the storm surge at time t+2. Results show that the ANN is a feasible technique for the forecast of the storm surge at a station using the forecasting data of local meteorological conditions.
其他識別: U0005-2308201018393200
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