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標題: 從財務指標觀點建構訴訟預警模型-羅吉斯迴歸之應用
Financial Measures, and the Prediction of Litigation Presence-A Logit Regression Approach
作者: 吳怡瑩
Wu, Yi-Ying
關鍵字: Operation Crisis;經營危機;Litigation Risk;Logit Regression;起訴風險;羅吉斯迴歸
出版社: 會計學研究所
自2001年美國安隆(Enron)破產事件後,接連發生的財務舞弊案件,令投資大眾及債權人等重大的損失,亦使得會計專業界面對愈漸強大之訴訟壓力及法律責任。故為降低起訴企業經營失敗之影響,本研究以傳統財務指標結合羅吉斯迴歸(Logit regression)工具來建構高訴訟風險企業之預測模型,以期協助會計師事務所及投資大眾警覺潛在體制不良之企業,進而作為相關決策之參考依據。

Since Enron collapsed in 2001, financial scandals increasing in numbers have not only imposed immense losses on investors and creditors, but also led accounting professions to face greater risks in lawsuit. So as to reduce litigation risks arising from operational failures by enterprises, this study aims to establish a prior alarm system for lawsuit through an application of logit model along with financial measures. Hence, it is expected that with system's assistance both accountants and investors could conscious the potential threats stemming from incompetent corporations at their early stage.
The empirical results show that three-category risk factors such as cash flow from operating, capital application and operation performance are negatively related to litigation presence. However, solvency and accounts receivable collection have a positive relation. It is surprisingly found that short-term capital flow and profitability is not coefficients significant. Accordingly, it can notify if enterprises with improper investment management, poor operation performance, inappropriate capital structure, insufficient working capital and insolvency would potentially bring about operational crisis or even lead to lawsuit.
In addition, the highest classificatory accuracy of the training and test sample is found in the first season which is classified correctly 86 percent and 77 percent respectively. A better warning is evident when the time is getting closed to litigation occurrence. Therefore, the litigation prediction model constructed in this study may provide a helpful assistance in identifying the occurrence of lawsuit.
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