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標題: Constructing the Warning Prediction Models of Corporations
作者: Lin, Yu-Cheng
關鍵字: Warning Prediction Models;危機預警模式;Financial Ratio Analysis Corporate Governance;Red Flags;SAS No.82;SAS No.99;Association Analysis;Data mining Neuro-Fuzzy Expert System;財務比率分析;公司治理;舞弊風險要素;SAS No.82;SAS No.99;關聯分析;資料採礦法;類神經模糊專家系統
出版社: 企業管理學系所
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This thesis consists of three essays related to the problems a company may encounter: financial distress, litigation, and fraud. These three issues have been discussed for a long time in financial and accounting field. Due to its importance for both the academia and practice, three new tries are made in hope to provide new insights into this area in this thesis.
In the first part, instead of constructing a warning system to predict the possibility of financial distress, association analysis is adopted to explore how the financial ratios are deteriorated, and how the relationships among the financial ratios are changed before the financial distress. Different from most of the other studies related to financial distress to predict the financial distress based on the cross sectional data, this research is trying to provide some guidelines for a corporation to avoid a financial distress from a longitudinal point of view.
In the second part, a litigation warning model is constructed based on the governance factors by using neuron fuzzy which is a hybrid technique combining the functionality of fuzzy logic and the learning ability of neural network. In this paper, a comparison is made between the traditional statistical technique, logic, and the proposed technique, neuro fuzzy. In addition to providing a litigation warning model with higher accuracy, the proposed neuron fuzzy model can also provide the auditor the knowledge about the relationship among the variables obtained from the past data.
In the third part, a comparison is made between the prediction results based on the different categorization of the risk factors according to SAS No. 82 and SAS No. 99. With the empirical results, this research is trying to show what the difference is between these two statements, which has not been discussed in the past. These results can be referred to before a new statement is advanced in the future.

在第三部份,本文比較舞弊風險要素在SAS No.82與SAS No.99不同分類下的預測結果。並嘗試藉由實證結果來闡訴過去研究未曾探討的公報間優劣之比較,此結果將有助於未來新公報擬訂時之參酌。
其他識別: U0005-2112200722171400
Appears in Collections:企業管理學系所

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