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標題: 以量化模型解釋企業資源規劃投資─在收益和成本皆不確定下
A quantitative model for Enterprise Resource Planning investment-Both revenue and costs under uncertainty
作者: 劉芳銘
Liou, Fang-Ming
關鍵字: Real Option;實值選擇權;Uncertainty;ERP Investment;Partial Differential Equation;不確定性;ERP投資;偏微分方程
出版社: 科技管理研究所
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Enterprise Resource Planning system is a kind of electronic-based transaction processing system for enterprises. It streamlines business processes by creating an enterprise-wide transaction structure, and integrates key functions of different departments within an integrated information system platform. Real option theory is derived from financial option, it enables organizations accurately evaluate IT investment under uncertainty, and can guide managers create value actively.
Therefore, this paper explores the evaluation of ERP investments both revenue and cost under uncertainty using the real option theory different from traditional NPV method for modeling. We utilize a quantitative model and real option concept to find the optimal investment rule for the ERP investment. Our research processes as follows: Firstly, we establish the basic model for ERP investment that both revenue and cost under uncertainty. Secondly, we utilize PDE method combine with the solution of optimal threshold ratio which proposed by Dixit and Pindyck in a book named “Investment under uncertainty” to obtain the optimal threshold ratio of revenue and cost. Finally, we find the optimal investment rule for ERP investment according the threshold value that we obtained. Contribution to the management aspects of this study, we not only noted the importance of ERP investment evaluation and ERP investment uncertainty, but also provides firms the optimal investment model before investing. The academic side, we pointed out that the use of partial differential equation for ERP investment should consider the costs and revenue of the two main factors of uncertainty, and also bridge the gap of tool to quantify the ERP investments under uncertainty.
其他識別: U0005-1607201020433500
Appears in Collections:科技管理研究所

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