Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
標題: 網路公司評價-應用資料包絡分析法之乘數評價方法
Valuing Internet Companies: A DEA-Based Multiple Valuation Approach
作者: 廖春貴
Liao, Chun-Kuei
關鍵字: DEA;資料包絡分析法;Multiple Valuation Approach;Internet Company;乘數評價方法;網路公司
出版社: 電子商務研究所
引用: 1.Ahmed, A.M., Zairi, M. and Alwabel, S.A., 2006, Global Benchmarking for Internet and E-commerce Applications, Benchmarking: An International Journal, 13(1/2), p.68-80 2.Alford, A., 1992, The Effect of the Set of Comparable Firms on the Accuracy of the Price-toEarnings Valuation Method, Journal of Accounting Research, 30(1), p.94-108 3.Anadol, B., 2000, Valuing Private Companies: A DEA Approach, master thesis of Graduate Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, Canada 4.Dolbeck A., 2007, Valuation of the E-commerce and Internet Industry, Weekly Corporate Growth Report, 1430, p.1-4 5.Banker, R.D., Charnes, A. and Cooper, W.W., 1984, Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis, Management Science, 30(9), p.1078-1092 6.Barua, A., Brockett, P.L., Cooper, W.W., Deng, H., Parker, B.R., Ruefli, T.W. and Whinston, A., 2004, DEA Evaluation of Long- and Short-run Efficiencies of Digital vs. Physical Product “dot com” Companies, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 103(8/9), p.233-253 7.Bertoncel, A., 2006, Acquisition Valuation: How to Value a Going Concern?, Nase Gospodarstvo, 52(5/6), p.116-125 8.Better Investing, 2007, Dot-Com Bubble, Part Ⅱ?, 56(6), p.38-40 9.Bose, I. and Pal, R., 2006, Predicting the Survial or Failure of Click-and-Mortar Corporations: A Knowledge Discovery Approach, European Journal of Operational Research, 174, p.959-982 10.Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W. and Rhodes, E., 1978, Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making, European Journal of Operations Research, 2, p.429-444 11.Chiesa, V., Gilardoni, E. and Manzini, R., 2005, The Valuation of Technology in Buy-cooperate-sell Decision, European Journal of Innovation Management, 8(2), p.157-181 12.Cochran, J.J., Darrat, A.F. and Elkhal, K., 2006, On the Bankruptcy of Internet Companies: An Empirical Inquiry, Journal of Business Research, 59, p.1193-1200 13.Courteau, L., Kao, J.L., O'Keefe, T. and Richardson, G.D., 2006, Relative Accuracy and Predictive Ability of Direct Valuation Methods, Price to Aggregate Earnings Method and a Hybrid Approach, Accounting and Finance, 46, p.553-575 14.Corr, T.A., 2006-2007, Boom, Bust, Boom: Internet Company Valuations-From Netscape to Google, The Financier, 13/14, p.66-84 15.Damodaran, A., 2001, The Dark Side of Valuation: valuing old tech, new tech, and new economy companies, Financial Times-Prentice Hall, New York, USA 16.Demers, E. and Lev, B., 2001, A Rude Awakening: Internet Shakeout in 2000, Review of Accounting Studies, 6(2-3), p.331-359 17.Dolbeck A., 2007, Valuation of the E-commerce and Internet Industry, Weekly Corporate Growth Report, 1430, p.1-4 18.Economist, 2005, Bubble 2.0, 376(8445), p.73-74 19.Farrell, M.J., 1957, The Measurement of Productive Efficiency, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A120, p.499-513 20.French, N., 2005, Discounted Cash Flow: Accounting for Uncertainty, Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 23(1), p. 76-89 21.French, N., 2006, Value and Worth: Scenario Analysis, Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 24(2), p.176-179 22.Gilbertson, B. and Preston, D., 2005, A Vision for Valuation, Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 23(2), p.123-140 23.Glover, T., 2006, The Dotcom Boom Is Back. Will It Last This Time?, Sunday Business, Jan 22, p.1 24.Gollotto, J.C. and Kim, S., 2003, Market Valuation of Dot Com Companies; R&D Versus Hype, Managerial Finance, 29(11), p.60-72 25.Haecker, C.U., 2000, Valuation of Internet Start-ups, master thesis of Department of Finance, Real Estate, and Law, California State University, Long Beach, USA 26.Hagel J. and Singer M., 1999, Net Worth, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, USA 27.Hand, J.R.M. and Lev, B., 2003, Intangible Assets, Values, Measures and Risks, chapter 11 (Profits, Losses, and the Nonlinear Pricing of Internet Stocks), Oxford Management Readers 28.HyperStat Online Statistics Textbook: 29Internet World Stats: 30.Intheblack, 2006, The New Internet Boom, 76(3), p.19 31.Jenkins, D.S., 2006, The Benefits of Hybrid Valuation Models, The CPA Journal, p.48-50 32.Jr., M.B.H., 2007, Three Approaches?, The Appraisal Journal, 75(1), p.34-44 33.Keating, E.K., Lys, T.Z. and Magee, R.P., 2003, Internet Downturn: Finding Valuation Factors in Spring 2000, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 34, p.189-236 34.King, A.M., 2000, Valuing Red-Hot Internet Stocks, Strategic Finance, Apr 2000, p.28-34 35.Kozberg, A., 2001, The Usefulness of Accounting and Non-financial Information in Explaining Revenues and Valuations for Internet Firms, dissertation of Department of Accounting, New York University, USA 36.Miller, E.M. and Mazumder, M.I., 2001, The Internet Bubble Updated, The Journal of Social, Political, and Economic Studies, 26 (4), p.683-689 37.MSCI Barra: 38.Nilsson, M., Harris, P.J. and Kett, R., 2001, Towards a valuation framework for hotels as business entities, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 13(1), p.6-12 39.Peelo, D., 2005, The Multiple in Share Valuation, Accountancy Ireland, 37(1), p.59-60 40.Perkins, A.B. and Perkins, M.C., 1999, The Internet Bubble: Inside the Overvalued World of High-Tech Stocks and What You Need to Know to Avoid the Coming Sharkeout, HarperCollins Publisher 41.Rajgopal, S., Venkatachalam, M. and Kotha, S., 2002, Managerial Actions, Stock Returns, and Earnings: The Case of Business-to-Business Internet Firms, Journal of Accounting Research, 40(2), p.529-556 42.Richardson, M.P. and Ofek, E., 2003, DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices, The Journal of Finance, LVIII (3), p.1113-1137 43.Schwartz, E.S. and Moon, M., 2000, Rational Pricing of Internet Companies, Financial Analysts Journal, 56(3), p.62-75 44.Serrano-Cinca, C., Fuertes-Dallen, Y. and Mar-Molinero, C., 2005, Measuring DEA Efficiency in Internet Companies, Decision Support Systems, 38, p.557-573 45.Soffer, L.C. and Soffer, R.J., 2003, Financial Statement Analysis: A Valuation Approach, Pearson Education, Inc., New Jersey, USA 46.Strategic Direction, 2005, DotCom Boom and Bust, 21 (2), p.30-31 47.Tavares, G., 2002, A Bibliography of Data Envelopment Analysis (1978-2001), Rutcor Research Report 48.TechVantage: 49.Thanassoulis, E., 2001, Introduction to the Theory and Application of Data Envelopment Analysis--A foundation text with integrated software, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Birmingham, UK 50.The Alexa Web Search Platform: 51.Trueman, B., Wong, M.H.F. and Zhang, X.J., 2000, The Eyeballs Have It: Searching for the Value in Internet Stocks, Journal of Accounting Research, 38(suppl.), p.137-162 52.Wang, Z., 2007, Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience, Review of Economic Dynamics, 10, p.78-105 53.Weekly Corporate Growth Report, 1998, Valuation of the Internet Industry, 987, p.9520 54.Welling, R. and White, L., 2006, Web Site Performance Measurement: Promise and Reality, Managing Service Quality, 16(6), p.654-670 55.Wen, H.J., Lim, B. and Huang, H.L., 2003, Measuring E-commerce Efficiency: A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Approach, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 103(8/9), p.703-710 56.Wilcox, J.W. and Philips, T.K., 2005, The P/B-ROE Valuation Model Revisited, The Journal of Portfolio Management, p.56-66 57.Wright, C., 2006, Boom…Bust…Boom..?, Intheblack, 76(4), p.28-34 58.Yahoo! Finance: 59.Yoo, Y.K., 2006, The valuation Accuracy of Equity Valuation Using a Combination of Multiples, Review of Accounting and Finance, 5(2), p.108-123
本研究主要是參考學者Anadol其碩士論文“Valuing private companies—A DEA approach” (2000)之研究概念,先以資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)進行比較公司(comparable firm)之篩選,再以股價毛利比率(Price-to-Gross Margin ratio)作為評價階段之乘數,估算目標公司之股價。
在比較公司篩選階段,本研究以四種不同的方法(Model 1~Model 4)進行測試,研究發現,在此四種方法中,綜合考量比較公司的篩選能力及股價的預測能力,Model 1為表現最佳的方法。若僅考量股價預測的方向(高估/低估)正確與否,本研究的預測準確率可達近百分之七十,此數據顯示,本研究成果對於提供相關資訊供投資者制定投資決策方面,確實具有相當程度的幫助。

During the last decade, many researchers have devoted themselves to developing such a tool that can help investors to estimate an Internet company's value. Some of them attempted to use those traditional valuation approaches to accomplish this mission; some tried to modify the traditional valuation approaches to fit Internet industry's unique characteristics, but most of them did not get satisfactory results. This research, hence, is designed to develop a tailored valuation method for Internet companies and then help the investors to make right investment decisions.
The whole research structure is inspired by Anadol's thesis “Valuing private companies—A DEA approach” (2000). This research extracts the idea of using DEA to find comparable firms for each target company, and then applies the Price-to-Gross Margin (P/GM) ratio (the multiple) in the second stage to estimate the price for it.
With different ways in forming comparable-firms-list, four models (Model 1~Model 4) are tested and an estimation based on the P/GM ratio is implemented under each model. Among these four models, Model 1 performs better than the other 3 models in terms of the ability of finding comparable firms for each sample company and the ability to get more accurate estimation of the subject company's current and future stock prices. And with the focus on the estimation direction (overvalued/undervalued), an accuracy rate of approaching 70% on average has been obtained from these four models. This implies that the research results are of some help for investors when they want to short or long an Internet stock.
其他識別: U0005-2506200721461300
Appears in Collections:科技管理研究所

Show full item record

Google ScholarTM


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.