Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/23046
標題: The factors affecting the forecast accuracy on EPS of stock brokerages-An empirical analysis from the characteristics of company and analyst
券商每股盈餘預測準確度之影響因素-結合公司屬性與分析師特性分別探討
作者: Lin, Hung-Wei
林泓瑋
關鍵字: EPS forecast of stock brokerages;券商每股盈餘預測;company characteristics;analyst characteristics;forecast accuracy;公司屬性;分析師特性;預測準確度
出版社: 財務金融系所
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摘要: 
本文以民國八十九年一月至民國九十四年三月,台灣股市之券商盈餘預測資料為研究樣本,使用多元迴歸分析探討券商分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響因素,並區分為二種不同的主題下進行探討,分別為公司屬性與分析師特性,而在分析師預測準確度方面,亦分別以預測誤差程度與預測準確性做為衡量之代理變數。
研究結果顯示:一、在公司屬性方面:1.市場環境為多頭、券商國籍為外資券商、產業屬性為科技業時的盈餘預測準確度皆顯著優於空頭、本土券商、非科技業。2.當公司本益比愈低、市價淨值比愈高、市場規模愈大、營收成長率愈高、預測的券商家數愈多及股市為多頭時,券商分析師的盈餘預測愈準確。二、在分析師特性方面:1.當券商分析師預測日與上一分析師預測日或會計年度終了日愈接近時,其盈餘預測準確度愈高。2.券商分析師前一年度預測準確性愈高時,當年度的盈餘預測愈準確。3.券商預測的公司家數愈少或產業數愈多時,其盈餘預測準確度愈高。4.券商國籍為外資券商時,分析師的盈餘預測準確度愈高。

This thesis is based on the data, which are collected from January 2000 to March 2005, of EPS forecast of brokerages in Taiwan's stock market. From the perspectives of company and analyst characteristics, we apply multiple-regression method to analyze the factors which affect the forecast accuracy of EPS. On the characteristics of company, the result shows that bull markets, foreign companies and technology industry have more accurate forecast than bear markets, local companies and non-technology industry do. Furthermore, the forecast of EPS would be more accurate when the company has lower P/E ratio, higher M/B ratio, larger market scale, and higher sales growth rate. In addition, the company covered by more stock brokerages, and bull markets would also help the accuracy of forecast. On the characteristics of analyst, as the analyst's forecast date is closer with the last analyst's or fiscal year-end, the accuracy of the forecast would be higher. Secondly, if the forecast of last year is more accurate, the forecast of EPS will be more precise in the following year. Thirdly, if analyst forecasts fewer companies or more industries, the forecast of EPS would be more accurate. Fourthly, as the analysts are from foreign companies, the forecast would be more accurate.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/23046
其他識別: U0005-1008200619465100
Appears in Collections:財務金融學系所

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