中國企業在香港IPO之報酬分析

Abstract

企業 IPO(Initial Public Offering)是指初次公開發行的公司，以往國內外相關研究均一致認為，蜜月期現象是指初次公開發行股票在甫上市時，將會產生一波短期超額報酬的行情，本文將探討中國企業到香港掛牌，在蜜月期當中股價的走勢以及一個月、參個月、半年、一年、參年，股價的報酬走勢以及有那些因素將影響股價短、中、長期的報酬。本研究發現，在日報酬方面，早期因為國企股指數尚未推出，以及97年回歸以前之不確定政治因素影響，許多赴香港IPO之中國大陸公司IPO後之日報酬多半為負值，而97年值之後香港金融市場股票IPO開始出現灰市交易，投資人可以透過灰市暗盤價格，鎖定住IPO後股價的報酬，在盤中出現達到欲鎖定報酬的股價時隨即退場，造成在IPO當日交易爆大量的情形。而長期報酬多半受到1997、1998年亞洲金融風暴等市場因素影響，造成在這一兩年間所計算之報酬為負值，但就長期而言，赴港IPO之中國大陸公司在2002年之後長期報酬有明顯進步之現象，顯現香港地區之政治不確定性以隨回歸之後慢慢減少，加上中國大陸市場慢慢地開放發展，香港成為與中國大陸金融市場與外界溝通之口岸，市場對於中國大陸國企股未來前景信心提昇使然，而香港市場在資本流動上沒有管制，沒有投資上限可以自由進出，任何外資皆可進入購買投資，相對於台灣市場的種種限制，外資的操作上力道會較大且精準，因此在長期的股價表現上較能反應其真正應該有的價格。 最終本研究歸納出有以下原因影響報酬走勢，短期報酬如日、週、月、季報酬主要影響IPO股價報酬之因素為超額認購倍數，對於市場來說該變數對市場而言為投資人對於該股之信心指數，因此超額認購倍數越高對於短天期報酬而言是有正相關影響。而長期報酬如季報酬而言，市場因素如2002年股票改革事件對於長期報酬有顯著之影響，顯示長期報酬受總體經濟市場因素影響較明顯。

An initial public offering (IPO) is the first sale of a corporation''s common shares to investors on a public stock exchange. Many empirical findings are consistent with explosive short-term soars on stock prices during IPOs' periods, called “the IPO honeymoon period”. In this paper, we focus on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, and find out performances of those companies in one-month, three-months, six-months, one-year and three-years after the IPOs' period. Further, we discuss notable impacts on the short-run, medium-run and long-run returns of those companies' stock prices. Before Hong Kong returning to China, most Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong experienced negative immediate daily returns after IPOs' periods, resulting from uncertain political developments and lacking of means to introduce China enterprises on the exchange. Only after Hong Kong 1997 sovereignty transfer, grey markets propped up. Investors could cross deals to lock up the profits during IPOs. They could choose to sell off the companies stocks once the prices hit the “lock-up prices”, triggering dramatic trading volumes on those stocks during the first day of IPOs. The Asian financial crisis delivered negative impacts on returns of companies listed before or in the year of 1997 and 1998. Performances over this period were negative. After that, Hong Kong's political environment improved sharply and China opened capital markets gradually, returns on listed Chinese companies in Hong Kong were on upward trends, especially notably after 2002. The Hong Kong market now becomes a gateway between China and Overseas. Becoming more confident with Chinese enterprises' exponential future growth, being no restrictions over capital controls as well as investment amount limits (unlike some obstacles in Taiwan), foreign investment in the domestic market is strong and affluent. This would support long-term capital gains on the related stocks to reflect their fair prices. The paper concluded the following two notable findings for affecting those listing stocks performance: 1. Short-run returns (e.g. daily, weekly, and monthly) are determined by over-subscription rate, demonstrating the investors' confidence with positive correlation. The higher the over-subscription rate is, the higher the short-run return delivers. 2. Long-run returns (e.g. quarterly) are mainly determined by macro-economic conditions favored or not on the financial markets. For example, the stock reforms on China stock markets in 2002 affected dominantly on the long-run returns over the Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong.