Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/24986
標題: 再生能源躉購政策下台灣離岸風力發電投資效益評估研究
The investment assessment of Taiwan''s offshore wind power under Feed-in Tariffs policy
作者: 劉全梤
Liu, Chuan-Fen
關鍵字: 離岸風力;offshore wind power;躉購制度;均化電能成本;淨現值;Feed-in Tariffs;levelized cost of energy;net present value
出版社: 高階經理人碩士在職專班
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摘要: 
我國自產能源非常缺乏,能源供給幾乎全仰賴進口,且化石能源依存度高,面對石油及煤等傳統化石能源日益耗竭,二氧化碳排放,以及國際能源價格波動劇烈等問題,對於國家安全及經濟發展都造成深遠影響。因此,推廣再生能源利用,增進能源多元化,是我國能源發展的重要政策。對於再生能源的補貼政策我國採行電力收購制度,政府考量再生能源成本等因素,依據再生能源類別訂定不同優惠躉購費率,提供給建置再生能源發電系統的業者保證購回電力的價格,讓投資者可以得到一定的回收。
台灣擁有優越的風能條件,根據國內外研究資料,離岸風力為我國蘊藏最豐富的再生能源,而離岸風場比陸域有更強的平均風速以及較穩定的風況,且離岸風場可避免風機對於鄰近社區造成噪音或視覺衝擊等困擾;加上台灣地小人稠,陸上可供興建風場的場址有限,因此開發離岸風力應是我國發展再生能源必走的道路,目前我國政府亦已規劃將風力發電開發重心由陸域延伸至離岸。
本論文透過風力發電原理、風機產業及影響風力發電各項成本因素之文獻探討,並根據企業之資本預算評估原則,參考國外研究機構評估風力發電經濟性的方法,採用生命週期成本法(life cycle costing)評估台灣最適合優先開發的彰濱及澎湖離岸風場,分別計算其均化電能成本(levelized cost of energy)及計畫淨現值,用以評估於台灣興建離岸風場的投資效益。
評估結果顯示,依目前躉購費率,彰濱及澎湖離岸風場都值得業者投資,而澎湖離岸風場為較佳的投資選擇。影響離岸風力投資計畫淨現值的各項因素中,以場址平均風速、風機可用率、建造成本之敏感指數較大,此三項因素如果變動時,對於投資計畫的效益將產生較大的影響。澎湖離岸風場因風能條件極佳,投資風險相當低;相對而言,投資彰濱離岸風場則風險較高。

Due to the lack of energy reserves in Taiwan, most of its energy must be imported and highly depend on fossil fuels. Taiwan faces tough issues such as increasing depletion of traditional fossil fuels, carbon dioxide emissions, and volatile energy prices, which continued to have significant influence on national security and the economy. Therefore, promoting the use of renewable energy and improving energy diversification are important energy policies in Taiwan. In order to provide investors a reasonable return on their investments, the government offered renewable energy producers guaranteed feed-in tariffs which are based on the cost of different renewable energy technologies.
Taiwan has excellent wind resource. The domestic and abroad researches show that offshore wind is Taiwan''s most abundant renewable energy. Offshore wind farms have stronger and steadier wind conditions compared to the wind farms on land, and offshore wind farms can avoid noise and visual impact plaguing the neighboring community. Besides, with Taiwan’s limited land area and dense population, the available sites on land for wind farms are scarce. Thus to develop offshore wind power is the path that Taiwan must take for renewable energy development. Currently the government has planned to extend the wind power from land to offshore.
This paper references the theories of wind power, and the literatures on wind power industry and cost factors of wind power. Furthermore, based on the capital budgeting principles and with reference to the reports from overseas renewable energy research institutions, this study applies life cycle costing method to estimate the investment benefit of both Jhangbin and Penghu offshore wind projects by calculating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the net present value (NPV) for each project.
The result of this study shows that under the current feed-in tariffs, both Jhangbin and Penghu offshore wind projects could be profitable, and Penghu is the better investment choice. The site average wind speed, wind turbine availability and the installed capital cost are the factors which have greater influence on the net present value of the offshore wind project. Thus if these three factors varied, it may significantly affect the profitability of the project. The investment risk of Penghu offshore wind project is quite low due to its excellent wind conditions, and relatively, the investment on Jhangbin offshore wind project is more risky.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/24986
其他識別: U0005-1906201322545200
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