Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27413
標題: 台灣地區能源與資本間之替代彈性研究
Substitution between Energy and Capital Inputs in Taiwan
作者: 李清華
Lee, Ching-Hwa
關鍵字: nested CES production function;巢狀CES生產函數;elasticity;CGE model;彈性;可計算一般均衡模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: 國內相關文獻: 吳家聲與菅瑞昌(1983),「台灣地區製造業技術與能源需求之分析」,台銀季刊,第三十四期,第四卷,第20~40頁。 梁啟源(1979),「台灣能源需求模型之建立與運用」,台灣大學經濟學研究所博士論文。 梁啟源(1983),「台灣能源經濟動態模型—製造業之個案研究」,台灣與香港經濟發展,中央研究院經研所,第79~135頁。 孫智陸(1985),「生命週期利潤、成本、產品供給及要素需求之系統分析」,經濟論文,第二十一期,第二卷,第425~467頁。 孫智陸(1993),「台灣地區製造業生產與能源需求經濟效率評估」,企銀季刊,第九期,第二卷與第三卷,第225~260頁。 國外相關文獻: Arrow, K.J., H.B. Chenery, B.S. Minhas, and R.M. Solow (1961) “Capital-labor substitution and economic efficiency” Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 225-250. Barnett, A.H., K. Reutter, and H. Thompson (1998)“Electricity substitution: some local industrial evidence” Energy Economics 20, 411-419. Berndt, E.R. and D.O. Wood (1975) “Technology, prices and the derived demand for energy” Review of Economics and Statistics 57, 259-268. Burney, N.A. and F.T. Al-Matrouk (1996) “Energy conservation in electricity generation: A case study of the electricity and water industry in Kuwait” Energy Economics 18, 69-79. Caloghirou, Y.D., A.G. Mourelatos, and H. Thompson (1997)“Industrial energy substitution during the 1980s in the Greek economy” Energy Economics 19, 476-491. Chang, K.P. (1994) “Capital-energy substitution and the multi-level CES production function” Energy Economics 16, 22-26. Christensen, L.R., D.W. Jorgenson, and L.J. Lau (1973) “Transcendental logarithmic production frontiers”Review of Economics and Statistics 55, 28-45. Diewer, W.E.(1973) “Separability and a generalization of the Cobb-Douglas, production and indirect utility function”Research Branch, Department of Manpower and Immigration, Ottama. Diewert, W.E. (1974)“Applications of duality theory, in frontiers of quantitative economics”Vol.II, Edited by Intriligator M.D and Kendrick D. A, Amsterdam, North-Holland. Frondel, M. (2004) “Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross- price elasticities”Energy Policy 32, 989-1000. Hisnanick, J.J. and B.L. Kyer (1995) “Assessing a disaggregated energy input: Using confidence intervals around translog elasticity estimates” Energy Economics 17, 125-132. Hisnanick, J.J. and K.O. Kymn (1990) “The evaluation of the US manufacturing sector using multifactor inputs of capital, labor, energy and real cash balances” International Review of Economics and Business 37, 149-162. Hudson, E.A. and D.W. Jorgenson (1974) “US energy policy and economic growth 1975-2000” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 5, 461-514. Jorgenson, D.W. (1991) “Production functions” in Eatwell et al(eds) The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics Macmillan London. Kemfert, C. (1998) “Estimated substitution elasticities of a nested CES production function approach for Germany” Energy Economics 20, 249-264. Kemfert, C. and H. Welsch (2000) “Energy-capital-labor substitution and the economic effect of CO2 abatement: evidence for Germany” Journal of Policy Modeling 22(6), 641-660. Kymn, K.O. and J.J. Hisnanick (2001) “The CES-translog production function, returns to scale and AES” Bulletin of Economic Research 53(3), 207-214. Magnus, J.R. (1979) “Substitution between energy and non-energy inputs in the Netherlands 1950-1976” International Economic Review 20, 465-484. Meadows, D.L. (1972) The Limits to Growth—A Report for the Club of Rome Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe Books). Medina, J. and J.A. Vega-Cervera (2001) “Energy and the non-energy inputs substitution: evidence for Italy, Portugal and Spain” Applied Energy 68, 203-214. Pindyck, R.S. and J.J. Rotemberg (1983) “Dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks” American Economic Review 75, 1066-1079. Pollak, R.A., R.C. Sickles and T.J. Wales (1984) “The CES-translog: specification and estimation of a new function” Review of Economics and Statistics 66(4), 602-607. Prywes, M. (1986) “A nested CES approach to capital-energy substitution” Energy Economics 8, 22-28. Rose, A. and S.Y. Liao (2005) “Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions” Journal of Regional Science 45(1), 75-112. Salvanes, K.G. and S. Tjotta(1998) “A note on the importance of testing for regularities for estimated flexible functional forms” Journal of Productivity Analysis 9, 133-143. Sato, K. (1967) “A two-level constant-elasticities-of-substitution production function” Review of Economics Studies 34, 201-218. Serletis, A. and S.C. Kumbhakar (1990) “KLEM substitutability: a dynamic flexible demand system” Applied Economics 22, 275-283. Sheinin, Y. (1980) “The demend for factor inputs under three level CES four factor production function” Unpublished PhD dissertation. University of Pennsylvania. Uzawa, H. (1962)“Production Function with constant elasticities of substitution” Review of Economics Studies 29, 291-299. Zellner, A. (1962)“An efficient method for estimating seemingly unrelated regression and tests for aggregation bias” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57, 585-612.
摘要: 
近年來中東產油國恐怖攻擊事件頻傳、石油業下游煉油產能不足,再加上中國大陸與印度等開發中國家對能源需求節節上昇,以及國際資金大量挹注能源市場炒作等因素的作用下,國際油價屢創新高,使得國際能源總署、OPEC、美國能源部等機構紛紛大幅調高短中期石油價格預測,顯示短期間石油價格大幅回檔的可能性甚低,暗指著高油價的趨勢已經降臨。然而,京都議定書已正式生效,台灣雖非簽約國不能簽定公約,仍需履行公約義務與責任。有鑒於高油價趨勢提升生產成本與京都議定書對空氣污染之規範,勢必使得我國整體能源政策與產業經濟發展有所變革。爲達到有效運用能源的目標,如何精確地補捉能源與資本間之替代或互補關係變成為一重要課題。此外,國內目前評估二氧化碳減量衝擊的主要工具之ㄧ,可計算一般均衡模型中,其巢狀固定替代彈性生產函數所需使用之替代彈性值,多半採取國外替代彈性相關研究的成果。故提供CGE模型建構者作彈性係數調整時,難免產生些許偏頗。有鑑於此,本研究成果將可提供替代彈性予CGE模型建構者參考。

本研究建構於KELM、LKEM與LEKM等三種不同的巢狀CES生產函數之下,採用民國90年度工商普查資料,全面性地估計國內各產業能源與資本間之Allen替代彈性,實證結果將可提供日後CGE模型建構者替代彈性以及各產業所適用之巢狀結構之參考依據。

實證結果發現能源與資本間的Allen替代彈性由KELM觀之,多為互補觀性,在LKEM的結構中呈現替代關係的產業亦相當多,而LEKM的結構亦呈現絕大多數的產業呈現互補關係。此外,KEL的結構下,無法得出任何結果,而LKE的結構下幾乎全為替代關係,但LEK得結構下則是幾乎全為互補關係。最後,本研究發現適合代表各產業生產行為的巢狀CES結構,此將有助於解決以往多數CGE模型建構者以專家判斷方式決定巢狀CES結構缺乏統計檢定支持的缺點,CGE模型建構者可依據專家判斷選取較適合之巢狀結構。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27413
其他識別: U0005-0908200618131400
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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