Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27543
標題: 平坦化的菲力普曲線:通貨膨脹與失業率的動態抵換與預測
The Flattening Phillips Curve: Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off and Forecast
作者: 何芸臻
Ho, Yun-Chen
關鍵字: inflation;通貨膨脹;unemployment;Phillips curve;flattening;Rolling-regression analysis;失業率;菲力普曲線;平坦化;滾動迴歸分析法
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: 中文部分 中央銀行(2003),「中央銀行制度與功能」。 行政院主計處(2011),「國民經濟動向統計季報」,第133期。 經建會綜合計劃處(2002),「當前台灣失業率攀升之分析與對策」,行政院經濟建設委員會專題報告。 陳柏琪(1997),「物價膨脹與失業率之抵換關係-菲力浦曲線分析之檢討」,自由中國之工業,頁19-29。 侯德潛、徐千婷(2002),「我國通貨膨脹預測模型之建立」,中央銀行季刊第24卷第3期,頁9-40。 侯德潛(2010),「主要國家貨幣目標機制之變革與啟示」,中央銀行季刊,第32卷第3期,頁3-27。 葉盛、田慧琦(2004),「台灣的物價情勢:影響因素探析與計量實證模型應用」,中央銀行季刊,第26卷第4期,頁69-115。 田慧琦(2010),「台灣失業率和產出之關聯及可能影響因素探討-歐肯法則實證分析」,中央銀行季刊,第32卷第3期,頁26-95。 莊朝榮(2009),「金融危機歷史之回顧」,台灣經濟研究月刊,第32卷第1期,頁16-21。 「2004~2005年台灣經濟回顧與前瞻」(2005),台灣經濟研究月刊,第28卷第1期,頁63-71。 經建會綜合計劃處(2004),「民國93年台灣總體經濟展望」,台灣經濟論衡,第2卷第1期,頁1-26。 李榮謙(2009),貨幣銀行學,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。 陳旭昇(1997),時間序列分析- 總體經濟與財務金融之應用,台北:台灣東華書局股份有限公司。 楊奕農(2008),時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用,台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。 中華民國經濟年鑑(1985),台北:經濟日報社編印。 中華民國經濟年鑑(1986),台北:經濟日報社編印。 李惠婷(2002),台灣菲力普曲線之分析,中國文化大學碩士論文。 劉淑芬(2002),台灣菲力普曲線對預測通貨膨脹的有效性探討,銘傳大學碩士論文。 行政院主計處,總體統計資料庫 http://61.60.106.82/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9L.asp 經濟部統計處 http://2k3dmz2.moea.gov.tw/gnweb/Indicator/wFrmIndicator.aspx 台經院產經資料庫http://tie.tier.org.tw/ 英文部分 Atkeson, A. and Ohanian, L.E., 2001, “Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 25, 2–11. Beaudry, P. and Doyle, M., 2000, “What Happen to Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada?” Research Discussion Paper, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. Borio, C. and Filardo, A., 2006, “Globalization and Inflation: New Cross-Country Evidenceon the New Global Determinants of Domestic Inflation,” BIS mimeo. Fisher, I., 1926, “A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes,” International Labour Review , 13(6), 785–92. Friedman, M., 1977, “Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment,” Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451– 472. Hallman, J. J., Porter R. D., and Small, D. H., 1989,“M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level,” Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System . Hallman, J. J., Porter, R. D., and Small, D. H, 1991, “Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?” American Economic Review, 81(4), 841-858. Iakova, D., 2007, “Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy,” IMF Working paper, WP/07/76. Kuttner, K. and Robinson, T., 2008, “Understnading the Flattening Phillips Curve,” Research Discussion Paper, Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia. Lipsey, R.G., 1960, “The Relationship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the UK, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis,” Economica, 27, 1-31. Okun, A. M., 1962, “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance,” Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association, 98-104. Phillips, A.W., 1958, “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957,”Economica, 25, 283-299. Phelps, E., 1967, “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Employment Over Time,” Economica, 34(135), 254-281. Phelps, E., 1968, “Money-Wage Dynamics and Equilibruim,” The Journal of Political Economy, 76(4), 678-711. Samuelson, P. and Solow, R., 1960, “The Problem of Achieving and Maintaining a Stable Price Level: Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy,” American Economic Review, 177-194. Roger, S., 2010, “Inflation Targeting Turn 20,” IMF Finance & Development. Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.W., 1999, “Forecasting Inflation,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, 293-335. Tillmann, P., 2010, “The Fed’s Perceived Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual FOMC Forecasts,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 32, 1008-1013.
摘要: 
經濟決策者在物價穩定與充分就業兩大經濟目標中,菲力普曲線(Phillips curve)是抉擇通貨膨脹及失業之抵換關係,最常運用的分析方法。近年來由於全球新興國家經濟起飛,對原油及原物料需求增加,引發全球性通膨危機。台灣為小型開放性經濟體系,國內物價易受進口物價影響;近年失業率受產業外移及全球經濟衰退影響,有逐年增加趨勢,因此,本研究嘗試建構原始的菲力普曲線模型及擴充的菲力普曲線模型,利用台灣1981-2010年消費者物價指數及失業率季資料,採滾動迴歸分析法,找出台灣的菲力普曲線之趨勢是否已隨著時間出現變化,並進一步以擴充的菲力普曲線模型進行樣本外通貨膨脹預測。
研究結果顯示台灣存在著一條負斜率之菲力普曲線,驗證失業率與通貨膨脹存在抵換關係,惟台灣的菲力普曲線呈現隨著時間呈現平坦化趨勢,通貨膨脹及失業率之抵換關係下降,使央行欲維持物價穩定,可能導致失業率大幅上升,增加政策成本。建議央行採行貨幣政策穩定通膨時,應將菲力普曲線平坦化現象納入考量,並配合使用其他貨幣工具,減少政策實行成本,達到預期效果。

Price stability and full employment are the two major economic goals for the economic policy makers. Phillips curve is the most commonly used method to analysis between inflation and unemployment trade-off relationship. In recent years, because of emerging countries economic take-off, and increase demand for crude oil and raw materials lead to global inflation. Taiwan is a small open economy, and domestic prices are vulnerable to import prices. Additionally, due to industry relocation and the global economic recession, unemployment rates increase year by year. Therefore, we attempt to construct both original Phillips curve model and the expansion Phillips curve model, and use Rolling regression analysis. We want to identify whether the Taiwan''s Phillips curve trend change over time, and forecast inflation by using out-of-sample forecasting.
The results indicate Taiwan''s Phillips curve is a negative slope, and verifying the trade-off relationship between unemployment and inflation. However, Taiwan''s Phillips curve shows a flat trend over time, it means inflation and unemployment rate trade-off relationship decline. When the Central Bank maintains price stability, may lead to significant increase in the unemployment rate and the cost of policies. In order to achieve the policy objectives, we recommend Central Bank takes Phillips curve flattening phenomenon into consideration when implement monetary policy, and could adopt other monetary tools to reduce the cost of policy implementation.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27543
其他識別: U0005-2507201109364400
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

Show full item record
 

Google ScholarTM

Check


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.