Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
標題: 氣候變化對流行傳染病之經濟影響─以台灣地區登革熱為例
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Fever in Taiwan
作者: 朱育賢
Chu, Yu-Hsien
關鍵字: Climate Change;氣候變遷;Dengue Fever;Panel data model;Contingent Valuation Method;Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice;Willingness To Pay;登革熱;縱橫資料模型;條件評估法;單界二元選擇法;願付價格
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: [1]ACSEDMIA Sinica Computing Centre (1999). Greenhouse gases data base. Retrieved July 9, 2006, from [2]Alberini, A. (1995). Estimating Willingness-to-pay model of discrete choice contingent valuation survey data. Land Economics, 71(1), 83-95. [3]Amemiya, T. (1971). The estimation of the variances in a variance-components model. International Economic Review, 12, 1-13. [4]Baltagi, B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2001. [5]Bishop, R. C., and Heberlein, T. A. (1979). Measuring Values of Extramarket Goods: Are Indirect Measures Biased ? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(5), 926-930. [6]Breuch, T. S., and Pagau, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253. [7]Breuch, T. S. (1987). Maximum likelihood estimation of random effects models. Journal of Econometrics, 36, 383-389. [8]Bright Sparcs. (2004). Bancroft, Joseph (1836 - 1894). Retrieved July 5, 2006, from [9]Cameron, T. A., and James, M. D. (1987a). Efficient estimation methods for closed-ended contingent valuation surveys. Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 269-276. [10]Cameron, T. A., and James, M. D. (1987b). Estimating willingness to pay from survey data: An alternative pre-test-market evaluation procedure. Journal of Marketing Research, 24, 389-395. [11]Chang, N. T. (1996). Occurrence and prevention of mosquito-borne disease of dengue fever. Proceedings of the Eighth Seminar on the Control of Vectors and Pests, 67-80. [12]Chen L. T. (1997). A Study of the Willingness-to-Pay and Consumption Decisions on Organic Vegetables in Taiwan. The Department of Agriculture Economics in National Chung-Hsing University, Master Thesis. [13]Chou, C. H., Lien, J. C., and Wang, C. H. (1999). Medical Entomology. Taipei: Nan, Shan-Tang. [14]Davis, R. K. (1963). Recreational Planning as An Economic Problem. Natural Resource Journal, 3(2), 239-249. [15]Dengue in WHO Western Pacific Region. Weekly epidemiological record, 1998, 73(36), 273-277. [16]Githeko, A. K., Steve W. L., Ulisses E. C., and Jonathan A. P. (2000). Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78(9), 1136-1147. [17]Global Change Research Center in NTU. (2006). Global warming. Retrieved July 5, 2006, from [18]Gubler, D. J. (1986). Dengue fever. San Juan, Puerto Rico: San Juan laboratories, dengue branch, division of vector-borne viral disease, center for infectious disease, 233-240. [19]Hales, S., Neil de Wet, John M., and Alistair, W. (2002). Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. THE LANCET, 360, 830-834. [20]Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 45, 1251-1271. [21]Hsieh, W. C. (1966). Review of epidemiologic studies on dengue fever in Taiwan during and before the second World War. NAMRU-2 Symp, Recent Studies on Arthropod-borne Disease of Man and Animals on Taiwan, 2-5. [22]Hsu, H. H., and Chen, C. T. (2002). Observed and Projected Climate Change in Taiwan. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 79, 87-104. [23]Hwang K. P. (1997). Dengue fever and Dengue hemorrhagic fever. Formosan J Med, 1(1), 50-56. [24]Hwang J. S. (1991). Ecology of Aedes Mosquitoes and Their Relationships with Dengue Epidemics in Taiwan Area. Special Publication of Entomology, 6, 105-127. [25]Ko, Y. C., (1989). Epidemiology of Dengue Fever in Taiwan. The Kaohsiung Journal of Medical Sciences, 5, 1-11. [26]Koopman, J. S., Prevots, D. R., Miguel A., et al. (1991). Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico. Am J Epidemiol, 133, 1168-1178. [27]Les Amis de la Terre, and Amigos de la Tierra (2000, Setember). THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Friends of the Earth International, 1-4. [28]Maddala, G. S. (1971). The use of variance components models in pooling cross section and time series data. Econometrica, 39, 341-358. [29]Miu, T. S., and Lang, S. J. (1960). Ecological Studies on the mosquitoes in Taipei. Journal of Taiwan Normal University, 5, 9-49. [30]Nerlove, M. (1971). A note on error components models. Econometrica, 39, 383-396. [31]RealClimate. (2005). Comments. Retrieved July 5, 2006, from http://www.realclimate. org/index.php?p=142 [32]Reiter P. (2001). Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109(1), 141-161. [33]Saha, A., Havenner, A., and Talpaz, H. (1997). Stochastic Production Function Estimation: Small Sample Properties of ML versus FGLS. Applied Economics, 29, 459-469. [34]Shih, H. M. (1996). Mechanism and Prediction of the Greenhouse Effect-An Integrated Project in Conformity with the “Framework Convention on Climate Change”: (5) Assessment of the Climate Change Impact and the Adaptation Strategies, EPA, 1-113. [35]Tsai, H. T., and Liu, T. M. (2005). Effects of global climate change on disease epidemics and social instability around the world. Human Security and Climate Change, 21-23. [36]Wallance, T. D., and Hussain A. (1969). The use of error components models in combining cross-section and time-series data. Econometrica, 37, 55-72. [37]Wang, C. H., and Chen, H. L. (1997). The influence of climate warming on prevalent of dengue fever in Taiwan. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 16(6), 455-465. [38]Wu, P. I., and Hsieh, W. H. (1995). Estimating the demand function of environmental goods: a comparative analysis in closed-ended contingent valuation model. Taiwanese Agricultural Economic Review, 1(1), 1-46.
為了達到研究目的,在研究中,我們應用縱橫資料模型 ( Panel data model ) 與條件評估法 ( CVM ) 兩種理論在一個兩階段的方法設計上。首先,我們利用縱橫資料模型去估計在台灣地區14個縣共308個鄉鎮(市)從2000年1月到2006年2月間氣候條件與登革熱病患數之間的關係。根據估計的結果,我們可以計算出由於全球暖化使得感染登革熱的機率增加並在問卷設計上選取12 % 、43 % 和87 % 分別代表低、中、高三種增加的感染機率。然後利用單界二元選擇法 ( SBDC ) 的問卷來調查受訪者的願付價格 ( WTP ) 。最後,我們再透過Probit模型從此次調查共471份有效樣本中計算出實證結果。
研究結果顯示,民眾為了降低由於全球暖化造成感染登革熱的機率增加,在增加機率為12 % 、43 % 及87 % 下,民眾每年的願付金額分別為新台幣724元、3,223元及5,114元。總結而言,此研究希望能解釋在台灣地區氣候條件和登革熱流行之間的關係,而有關當局也可藉本研究進一步了解台灣地區氣候變化對流行傳染病之經濟影響。

Researchers of climate change have suggested that climate variability have a significant influence on the epidemiology of infectious diseases, particularly on vector-borne diseases. However, research which has empirically documented the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease is scant. Therefore, the first aim of this study attempts to explore how climate conditions and epidemics of dengue fever are related in Taiwan. The second purpose of this study is to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease.
To achieve our objectives, two-stage approach is designed and two methods involved Panel data model and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) are applied in this study. At first, we use Panel data model to access the relationship between climate conditions and patients of dengue fever during Jan. 2000 to Feb. 2006 in 308 cities or townships which divide into 14 counties in Taiwan area. According to these outcomes, we can figure out the increasing infectious probability of dengue fever and select 12 %, 43 %, and 87 % to represent low, mid, and high infectious probability which due to global warming in our questionnaire design. Then we investigate the respondent's willingness to pay (WTP) in the survey with single-bounded dichotomous choice (SBDC) in questionnaires. Finally, we calculate the empirical results through Probit model in this survey with 471 valid samples.
Results of this study showed that people would pay NT$ 724, NT$ 3,223, and NT$ 5,114 per year in order to prevent the infectious probability of dengue fever from increasing 12 %, 43 %, and 87 %, respectively. To conclude, this study may be of importance in explaining the relationship between climate conditions and epidemics of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as in providing the authorities with a better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease.
其他識別: U0005-1907200600412600
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

Show full item record

Google ScholarTM


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.