Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27547
標題: 氣候變化對流行傳染病之經濟影響─以台灣地區登革熱為例
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Fever in Taiwan
作者: 朱育賢
Chu, Yu-Hsien
關鍵字: Climate Change;氣候變遷;Dengue Fever;Panel data model;Contingent Valuation Method;Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice;Willingness To Pay;登革熱;縱橫資料模型;條件評估法;單界二元選擇法;願付價格
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 
氣候變遷的研究者指出氣候的變化對傳染病,特別是病媒傳染病,在流行病學上有顯著的影響。然而,氣候變化對傳染病的經濟影響在實證研究上卻相當缺乏。因此本研究的第一個目的便試圖探討在台灣地區,氣候條件與登革熱流行之間的關係。研究的第二個目的則是估計氣候變化對傳染病之經濟影響。
為了達到研究目的,在研究中,我們應用縱橫資料模型 ( Panel data model ) 與條件評估法 ( CVM ) 兩種理論在一個兩階段的方法設計上。首先,我們利用縱橫資料模型去估計在台灣地區14個縣共308個鄉鎮(市)從2000年1月到2006年2月間氣候條件與登革熱病患數之間的關係。根據估計的結果,我們可以計算出由於全球暖化使得感染登革熱的機率增加並在問卷設計上選取12 % 、43 % 和87 % 分別代表低、中、高三種增加的感染機率。然後利用單界二元選擇法 ( SBDC ) 的問卷來調查受訪者的願付價格 ( WTP ) 。最後,我們再透過Probit模型從此次調查共471份有效樣本中計算出實證結果。
研究結果顯示,民眾為了降低由於全球暖化造成感染登革熱的機率增加,在增加機率為12 % 、43 % 及87 % 下,民眾每年的願付金額分別為新台幣724元、3,223元及5,114元。總結而言,此研究希望能解釋在台灣地區氣候條件和登革熱流行之間的關係,而有關當局也可藉本研究進一步了解台灣地區氣候變化對流行傳染病之經濟影響。

Researchers of climate change have suggested that climate variability have a significant influence on the epidemiology of infectious diseases, particularly on vector-borne diseases. However, research which has empirically documented the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease is scant. Therefore, the first aim of this study attempts to explore how climate conditions and epidemics of dengue fever are related in Taiwan. The second purpose of this study is to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease.
To achieve our objectives, two-stage approach is designed and two methods involved Panel data model and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) are applied in this study. At first, we use Panel data model to access the relationship between climate conditions and patients of dengue fever during Jan. 2000 to Feb. 2006 in 308 cities or townships which divide into 14 counties in Taiwan area. According to these outcomes, we can figure out the increasing infectious probability of dengue fever and select 12 %, 43 %, and 87 % to represent low, mid, and high infectious probability which due to global warming in our questionnaire design. Then we investigate the respondent's willingness to pay (WTP) in the survey with single-bounded dichotomous choice (SBDC) in questionnaires. Finally, we calculate the empirical results through Probit model in this survey with 471 valid samples.
Results of this study showed that people would pay NT$ 724, NT$ 3,223, and NT$ 5,114 per year in order to prevent the infectious probability of dengue fever from increasing 12 %, 43 %, and 87 %, respectively. To conclude, this study may be of importance in explaining the relationship between climate conditions and epidemics of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as in providing the authorities with a better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on infectious disease.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27547
其他識別: U0005-1907200600412600
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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