Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
標題: 泰國的農業、食品出口和經濟成長之三項研究
Three Essays on Agriculture, Food Export and Economic Growth in Thailand
作者: 祝仁同
Jatuporn, Chalermpon
關鍵字: Thailand;泰國;Agriculture;Economic growth;Food export;VAR;FGVDGranger causality;Cointegration;ARMA;Risk analysis;農業;經濟增長;食品出口;VAR;FGVD;Granger 因果;共整合;ARMA;風險分析
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: Abu-Bader, S., Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(5), 887-898. Apergis, N., Rezitis, A. (2003). Mean spillover effects in agricultural prices: The case of Greece. Agribusiness, 19(4), 425-437. Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics Letters, 94(3), 389-395. Bank of Thailand. (2010). Economic and financial statistics report. Bank of Thailand. Available at (Accessed data: March 2010). Box, G. E. W., Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Holden Day: San Francisco. Bose, S., Galvan, A. (2005). Export supply of New Zealand's live rock lobster to Japan: An empirical analysis. Japan and the World Economy, 17(1), 111-123. Chang, T., Nieh, C. C. (2004). A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(3), 591-598. Department of Provincial Administration. (2011). Population in the end of 2010. Department of Provincial Administration, Ministry of Interior, Thailand. Available at (Accessed data: March 2011). Dickey, D., Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. Dickey, D., Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836. Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons Inc: New York. Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. Falvey, L. (2000). Thai agriculture: Golden cradle of millennia. Kasetsart University Press: Bangkok. FAO. (2009). Agricultural and food commodities production. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at default.aspx (Accessed data: February 2010). Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric model and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39(1-2), 199-211. Granger, C. W. J., Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. Hsiao, F. S. T., Hsiao, M. C. W. (2006). FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia: Panel data versus time-series causality analyses. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(6), 1082-1106. Jatuporn, C., Chien, L. H., Sukprasert, P., Thaipakdee, S. (2011). Does a long-run relationship exist between agriculture and economic growth in Thailand? International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(3), 227-233. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press: Oxford. Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-209. Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1994). Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure: An application to the IS-LM model. Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 7-36. Katircioglu, S. T. (2004-2005). Co-integration and Causality between GDP, agriculture, industry and service growth in North Cyprus: Evidence from time series data, 1977-2002. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 5/6(Fall), 173-187. Katircioglu, S. T. (2006). Causality between agriculture and economic growth in a small nation under political isolation: A case from North Cyprus. International Journal of Social Economics, 33(4), 331-343. Kmenta, J. (1986). Elements of econometrics. MacMillan Publishing Co: New York. Konya, L. (2006). Export and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. Konya, L., Singh, J. P. (2009). Causality between international trade and gross domestic product: The case of the Indian agricultural and manufacturing sectors. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 1(1), 61-75. Lamb, R. L. (2000). Food crops, exports, and short-run policy response of agriculture in Africa. Agricultural Economics, 22(3), 271-298. LeBel, P. (2008). The role of creative innovation in economic growth: Some international comparisons. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(4), 334-347. Lim, C., Pan, G. W. (2005). Inbound tourism developments and patterns in China. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 68(5-6), 499-507. Love, J., Chandra, R. (2005). Testing export-led growth in South Asia. Journal of Economic Studies, 33(2), 132-145. MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618. MacKinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A., Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(5), 563-577. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. (1992). 100 years of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives 2535 BE. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Thailand. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. (1996). His Majesty the king and the development of Thai agriculture. Commemorative of the golden jubilee year 2539 BE. Amarin Printing and Publishing, Co. Ltd.: Bangkok. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. (2009). Agriculture. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. Available at update_eng.php?id=28 (Accessed data: November 2009). Ministry of Commerce. (2011). MENUCOM: Principle exports. Available at http://www2. (Accessed data: March 2011). Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2010). Thailand in the 2000's: Agriculture. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Thailand. Available at E_Book/b5.pdf (Accessed data: February 2010). (van) Mulekom, L., Axelsson, A. Batungbacal, E. P., Baxter, D., Siregar, R. de la Torre, I., (2006). Trade and export orientation of fisheries in Southeast Asia: Under-priced export at the expense of domestic food security and local economies. Ocean & Coastal Management, 49(9-10), 546-561. Office of Agricultural Economics. (2004). Agriculture in Thailand. Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Thailand. ONESDB. (2010). Quarterly gross domestic products. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand. Available at http://www. aspx?tabid=95 (Accessed data: March 2010). ONESDB. (2011). Quarterly gross domestic products. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand. Available at Default. aspx?tabid=95 (Accessed data: March 2011). Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, 58(1), 17-29. Phillips, P. C. B., Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: Evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623. Tiffin, R., Irz X. (2006). Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, 35(1), 79-89. Thornton, J. (1996). Co-integration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992. Economics Letters, 50(3), 413-416. Thornton, J. (1997). Export and economic growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe. Economics Letters, 55(2), 235-240. Thungsuwan, S., Thompson, H. (2003). Exports and economic growth in Thailand: An empirical analysis. BU Academic Review, 2(1), 10-13. Toda, H. Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. Ullah, S., Zaman, B., Farooq, M., Javid, A. (2009). Cointegration and causality between exports and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 264-272. Vohra, R. (2006), Export and economic growth: Further time series evidence from less-developed countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 7(3), 345-350.
第一篇論文,也是本文第三章,主要在研討泰國在1961年至2009年間農業與經濟成長間的因果關係。運用Granger 因果分析與Wald 卡方係數檢定方法,以衡量並確定變數間的長期因果關係與其間的衝擊傳遞效果。
在認知透過以多個部門發展為目前泰國經濟策略後,本文第四章運用「多變數自我迴歸(VAR)」模型,以1995年1月至2009年12月資料,檢視泰國出口部門中農業與食品部門的因果關係。Granger 因果分析與Johansen共整合診斷則是用以分析長期均衡與變數間的因果關係。

Agriculture has been consecutive increased its importance in many emerging economies with the closed connection to food sector and trade activities. How to construct a competitive agricultural sector is becoming a leading strategy of economic development in such countries. This study emphasizes on analyzing key factors affecting Thailand economic growth through the aspects of agriculture and food export by interpreting with the time-series analysis framework.
The aim of the first essay presented in Chapter 3 is to investigate the causal relationship between agriculture and economic growth in Thailand over 1961 to 2009. The Granger causality approach and the Wald (χ2) coefficient statistic are utilized to reveal the long-run causal relationship and impact transmission between variables.
Based on the statistical results, a long-run relationship and size impact are detected running from agriculture value to economic growth, but no responsive feedback. These findings, including with the forecast generalized variance decomposition (FGVD), show that the significant influence of agriculture on economy do exist and it consists with economic growth in the long-time period. It concludes that policy-makers should regard agriculture as an important supporting sector for Thai's economy even with recent stable grows in agriculture.
By considering developments in several sectors as a key economic strategy for presenting Thailand, the essay in Chapter 4 exams the causality between agricultural and food products in Thailand's export sector using a tri-variate vector autoregressive (VAR) model over the period of January 1995 to December 2009. The Granger causality test, following the Johansen cointegration diagnosis, is performed to analyze the long-run equilibrium and causal relationship between the variables.
As the statistical results show, first, a positive long-run equilibrium is existed among the product values of agriculture, food and export based on the cointegration analysis. Secondly, the causality test results confirm that export and food based on product value leads to an increase in value of agricultural output in both short- and long-term, but total export only leads to an increase in the product value of food in short run. Furthermore the results from FGVD analysis also strongly supports that products from agricultural sector are the major input for export sector in Thai economy.
The purpose of the essay in Chapter 5 focuses on the fishery industry, which is one of the key sub-agriculture sectors of Thailand. We observe its benefits to rural regions and related food industries by exporting products to the US and Japan for decades. We also try to test its connection between agriculture and trade and the potential risk attached with exchange fluctuation. High degree of trade dependence for over half of the production value makes the unexpected fluctuations in exchange rate between Thai baht and two destination currencies highly influence the development in fishery.
Fluctuations of exchange rate between Thai baht and the two currencies, US dollar and Japanese Yen, are defined as the sources of export risk for domestic seafood products. Next, this study tries to detect whether the fluctuations in exchange rate causes the supply of seafood shifts abundantly. The uni-variate time series analysis through an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is adopted to forecast the supply of the products in twelve month-period ahead. Next, the FGVD is utilized to capture for the future risk that is analyzed by applying the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Policy-makers can put the implications based on these empirical findings to minimize and manage the risks of the future supply of seafood products as from the exchange rate fluctuations.
Policy-makers in Thailand may ensure that agriculture should remain stable in terms of its output as it is particularly relevant to trade and food sectors in such an export-oriented economy. As the conclusion from the three essays above, Thailand may implement economic policies which consider agriculture as a key and basic engine to support the economy in trade and food scenario.
其他識別: U0005-2707201113172100
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

Show full item record

Google ScholarTM


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.