Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27913
標題: 台灣地區梅雨期間豪雨發生機率之空間分布及其在農業上之應用
The spatial distribution of probability of rainstorm occurence and agricultural utilization in Taiwan Mei-yu season
作者: 陳守泓
Chen, Shoou Hong
關鍵字: Mei-yu;梅雨;probability of rainstorm occurence;spatial distribution;rainstorm risk;豪雨發生機率;空間分布;豪雨風險
出版社: 土壤學系
摘要: 
In Taiwan area the rain spell of Mei-yu generaiil occured from
min May to June always brings the serious injoury of
agricultural cultrivation. The research been intereating in the
probability of rainstorm occurence at central and southwest
region of Taiwan may be used to evaluate the agricultural
affect of disastrous climate. In the study, a rainstorm is
dfined as there were 150 millimeter precipitated within 3
days. The Poisson distribution is found to fit robability of
rainstorm occurence and the Kriging analysis and the Cokriging
analysis are used to compute the spatial variability of the
probability. The probability of rainstorm occurence often
producted significant variation along the Central Montain
Ranges. During Mei-yu, the probability evaluated in the
southwest Taiwan is from 0.4 to 0.7, and it in the central
Taiwan is from 0.35 to 0.8. The Kriging method adopted to
evaluated the probability spatial distribution in the southwest
part which raingage network density is 12 rain stations per
1000 square kilometer can get better conclusion. In the central
region with eievation data, the probability spatial
distribution evaluated by Cokriging method will be better than
by Kriging method. The data of isomers and agrometerological
disasters can be used to compute the probability of rainstorm
risk in the central and southwest Taiwan when evluating the
impact of rain gush on crop production and agricultural
economy. In the study, the probability of rainstorm risk at
Tainan and Chiayi is bigger than it at Changhwa and Yunlin, and
the probable risk culitivated vegetable and fruit is bigger
than cultivated the main crop such as rice, corn, etc..

台灣地區五、六月間的梅雨豪雨常對本省中南部地區的農業生產造
成 莫大損失。本研究在探討本省梅雨期間中南部各地發生豪雨的機率問
題,以期能提供農業生產上應用。研究中將持續三天累積雨量達150公釐
以上之降雨定義為豪雨,由雨量測站長期資料計算各佔豪雨發生機率,再
由 Kriging和Cokriging方法探討豪雨發生機率之空間分布。基本上各地
豪雨發生機率大致依中央山脈的地型而變化。本省西南部平原,梅雨期間
至少發生一次豪雨的機率介於0.35至0.8之間。在西南部平原,當取用雨
量測站密度達每1000平方公里有12站以上,採用Kriging方式可得到很好
的空間分布估算。在中部地區,若能配合研究區域內之高程資料,則由
Cokriging方式估算出的豪雨發生機率之空間分布,可稍優於由Kriging方
式估算者。 由豪雨發生機率空間分布之研究結果,配合作物因雨害受
損之調查資料,能計算中南部地區六個縣市作物的豪雨風險機率,可供進
行農業改良投資前之經濟評估使用。在既有資料下,研究中指出台南、嘉
義地區的豪雨風險機率大於彰化、雲林地區;而種植蔬菜、果樹所需承受
之豪雨風險機率大於糧食作物。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27913
Appears in Collections:土壤環境科學系

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