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標題: 台灣地區梅雨期間豪雨發生機率之空間分布及其在農業上之應用
The spatial distribution of probability of rainstorm occurence and agricultural utilization in Taiwan Mei-yu season
作者: 陳守泓
Chen, Shoou Hong
關鍵字: Mei-yu;梅雨;probability of rainstorm occurence;spatial distribution;rainstorm risk;豪雨發生機率;空間分布;豪雨風險
出版社: 土壤學系
In Taiwan area the rain spell of Mei-yu generaiil occured from
min May to June always brings the serious injoury of
agricultural cultrivation. The research been intereating in the
probability of rainstorm occurence at central and southwest
region of Taiwan may be used to evaluate the agricultural
affect of disastrous climate. In the study, a rainstorm is
dfined as there were 150 millimeter precipitated within 3
days. The Poisson distribution is found to fit robability of
rainstorm occurence and the Kriging analysis and the Cokriging
analysis are used to compute the spatial variability of the
probability. The probability of rainstorm occurence often
producted significant variation along the Central Montain
Ranges. During Mei-yu, the probability evaluated in the
southwest Taiwan is from 0.4 to 0.7, and it in the central
Taiwan is from 0.35 to 0.8. The Kriging method adopted to
evaluated the probability spatial distribution in the southwest
part which raingage network density is 12 rain stations per
1000 square kilometer can get better conclusion. In the central
region with eievation data, the probability spatial
distribution evaluated by Cokriging method will be better than
by Kriging method. The data of isomers and agrometerological
disasters can be used to compute the probability of rainstorm
risk in the central and southwest Taiwan when evluating the
impact of rain gush on crop production and agricultural
economy. In the study, the probability of rainstorm risk at
Tainan and Chiayi is bigger than it at Changhwa and Yunlin, and
the probable risk culitivated vegetable and fruit is bigger
than cultivated the main crop such as rice, corn, etc..

成 莫大損失。本研究在探討本省梅雨期間中南部各地發生豪雨的機率問
由 Kriging和Cokriging方法探討豪雨發生機率之空間分布。基本上各地
式估算者。 由豪雨發生機率空間分布之研究結果,配合作物因雨害受
Appears in Collections:土壤環境科學系

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