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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28279
標題: 台灣電子業對東協的出口貿易競爭分析
Export Competitiveness of Taiwan's Electronic Industry in ASEAN Market
作者: 張俐婷
Chang, Li-Ting
關鍵字: Export Competitiveness;出口競爭;Time Series Model;時間序列模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: 尤元奎(2002)。中國大陸電子業在美日歐盟市場之出口競爭趨勢分析。未出版之碩士論文，東吳大學經濟研究所，台北市。 張壽明(2002) 。台灣電子業在美日歐盟市場之出口競爭趨勢分析。未出版之碩士論文，東吳大學經濟研究所，台北市。 許楓靈(2001) 。台灣與中國大陸對歐聯出口競爭優勢分析。未出版碩士論文，東吳大學經濟研究所，台北市。 彭開瓊(2002)。台灣地區溫室氣體排放基線預測。未出版碩士論文，國立台灣大學農業經濟學研究所，台北市。 洪財隆、江啟臣(2008)。東亞FTA盛行與台灣因應之道。台灣經濟研究院產經月刊。出刊時間:2008年5月19日。上網日期:2008年10月20。 王勤銓(2008)。亞洲重要國家FTA發展與趨勢。台灣經濟研究院產經月刊。出刊日期:2008年10月15日。上網日期:2008年10月20日。 錢思敏(2007)。東協形成下液晶顯示器產業的發展。台灣經濟研究院產經月刊。出刊日期:2007年12月14日。上網日期:2008年10月20日。 吳福成(2004)。東亞經濟合作的現況與未來。台灣經濟研究院專題研究。 洪財隆(2004)。解析「東協加一」(中國)自由貿易區的宣示與實質效果。台灣經濟研究院專題研究。 黃兆立、朱浩(2008)。兩岸與日、韓在電機電子產業競爭的發展趨勢。台灣經濟研究院經濟月刊。出刊日期:2008年7月10日。上網日期:2008年10月20日。 林祖嘉(2005)。2010大陸東協自由貿易區啟動，台灣邊緣化的開始。(財團法人國家政策研究基金會國政研究報告，094-002號)。臺北市：政治大學經濟系。 林祖嘉(2005)。中國大陸與東協自由貿易區(CAFTA)對兩岸經貿的影響與衝擊。(財團法人國家政策研究基金會國政研究報告，094-027號)。臺北市：政治大學經濟系。 Andrews, R. L. (1994), “Forecasting performance of structural time series models”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, pp.129-133. Crispin M. Kapombe and Dale Colyer (1998), “Modeling US Broiler Supply Response: A Structural Time Series Approach”, Agricultural and Resource Review, vol. 27, issue 2, pp. 241-251. Crispin M. Kapombe, Dale Colyer (1999), “A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports”, Agricultural Economics 21, pp.295-307. Eiji Ogawa and Kentaro Kawasaki (2006), “Adopting a common currency basket arrangement into the ASEAN plus three”, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-E-028. Engle, R. F. (1978), “Estimating structural models of seasonality”, in A. Zellner, ed., Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC, pp.281-297. Gerhard Thury and Stephen F. Witt (1998), “Forecasting Industrial Production Using Structural Time Series Models”, Omega. Int. J. Mgnn Sci. Vol. 26 No. 6, pp. 751-767. Harvey, A. C. and Todd, P. H. J. (1984), “Forecasting economic time series with structural and Box Jenkins models: a case study”, Journal of Business and Economic statistics, Vol.1, No.1, pp.299-315. John Williamson (2004), “The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Relevance of International Experience to China’s Decision”, Journal of Business and Economic statistics, pp.132-210. Martyn Duffyv(2006), “Tobacco consumption and policy in the United Kingdom”, Applied Economics, 38, pp.1235-1257. Mohamadou Fadiga (2004), “Structural time series analysis of US cotton exports”, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics. Qiu, L. L., Turner, L. and Smyrk, L. (2003), “A Study of Changes in the Chinese Automotive Market Resulting from WTO Entry”, Annual Conference of Association for Chinese Economics Studies Australia. Rohan Williamson (1998). “Exchange Rate Exposure and Competition: Evidence from the World Automotive Industry”, Georgetown University WP FINC-1377-43-198. Simon,H. B. and K. B. Nowman (1999). “Kalman filtering of generalized vasicek term structure models”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, pp.115-130. Suthiphand Chirathivat (2002), “ASEAN-China Free Trade Area: background, implications and future development”, Journal of Asian Economics 13, pp.671-686. V. Anton Muscatelli and Patrizio Tirelli (2001), “Unemployment and growth: some empirical evidence from structural time series models”, Applied Ecomonics ,2001.33, pp.1083-1088.
摘要: 
臺灣電子產業出口至東協具有重要地位，與日本、南韓為主要競爭對手，而東協加三將創造自由貿易優勢，對台灣造成不力的衝擊，臺灣電子業能否在東協出口市場佔有競爭優勢，將成為政府與民眾所深切關心的重要議題。資料為台灣、日本和南韓電子業對東協自1988年到2008年月資料的出口額，透過結構時間序列模型檢測並預測台灣、日本及南韓電子產業在東協的出口競爭情況。實證結果顯示，臺灣電子業在東協市場逐漸萎縮，對我國電子業在東協市場有很大的威脅；相反的，日本及南韓在未來仍保有競爭優勢。因此“東協加三”正式成立後，臺灣電子產業該如何因應以打破被邊緣化的危機，這都是當局政府及民眾所共同關心的。

Faced with the integration of ASEAN plus three, how can the electronic industry of Taiwan keep the competitive advantage on ASEAN export market is becoming an important issue that government and the public mostly important concern. The monthly data of the export value of the electronic industry in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea from January 1988 to December 2008 are used for estimation. And use STSM to forecast the competition condition of the export of electronic industry in Taiwan to ASEAN. Empirical results show that the export to ASEAN of electronic industry of Taiwan has not turned for the better and continuously decreasing in the future. Relatively, because Japan and South Korea both claim and consult ASEAN for the free trade area, thus, the export trade change rate to ASEAN of electronic industry of Japan and South Korea are increasing steadily and the rise continues in the future. It is important for policy makers to realize possible after the integration of ''ASEAN plus three'', among import market of ASEAN, how should the electronic industry of Taiwan break the crisis of the marginalization.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28279
其他識別: U0005-1307200912594600
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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