Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28417
標題: 自然旅遊需求預測-以日月潭國家風景區為例
Forecasting Nature-based Tourism Demand--the case of Sun-Moon Lake National Scenic Area in Taiwan
作者: 張世芳
Chang, Shih-Fang
關鍵字: nature-based tourism;自然旅遊;Sun-Moon Lake National Scenic Area;structural change;ARIMA model;facility capacity;日月潭國家風景區;結構變化;ARIMA 模型;設施承載量
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 
「自然為主體」(nature–based) 的旅遊 (簡稱自然旅遊) 需求在國內有長期增加的趨勢,以高山自然美景(mountainous natural landscape) 旅遊聞名於世的日月潭國家風景區為國家旅遊發展重點。本研究以西元 1999-2008 年日月潭遊客數之月資料建立時間數列 ARIMA 模型。研究發現西元 2004年為其時間數列之結構分界點,亦即 2004-2008 年之時間數列與前段 1999-2003 年之時間數列在結構上有明顯之差異,本研究以後半段 2004-2008 年所建立之模型 ARIMA(5,1,1) 為最適預測模式。日月潭風景區是以高山自然美景著稱,雖然其腹地廣大,但多為保留地,本研究以設施承載量中停車位數與所預測之遊客數作為自然旅遊主體的參考指標,並以西元 2009 年之資料作為評估的樣本,經實證發現,日月潭國家風景區目前仍符合自然旅遊。

There is a long-term upward trend in domestic Nature-based Tourism (NBT) demand of Sun-Moon Lake National Scenic Area, which is also famous of its mountainous natural landscape.
This study built up an ARIMA model to analyze the number of tourists in Sun-Moon Lake during 1999-2008. This study revealed that the structural change happened in 2004, which means that the structure of the data from 1999 to 2003 are different from the structure of the data from 2004 to 2008. The best forecasting model is ARIMA(5,1,1) based on the data from 2004-2008.
Sun-Moon Lake owns the central region, however, most of them are for reservation. This study used the number of parking lots (facility capacity) and the forecasting number of tourists to be the major index for the NBT demand. Using the data in 2009 to evaluate the sample, the empirical results of this study indicated that Sun-Moon Lake is qualified for NBT tourism.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28417
其他識別: U0005-0208201011360300
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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