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標題: 台灣農業機械性創新研究報酬之評估
An Evaluation of Returns of Agricultural Mechanical Innovation in Taiwan
作者: 黃玟儀
Hwang, Wendy
關鍵字: Agricultural Mechanical Innovation;農業機械性創新;Evaluation of Ruturns;報酬評估;經濟剩餘法;勞動節省值;多項式落遲分配模型
出版社: 農業經濟學系
Almon 多項式落遲分配模型下,呈現三階多項式函數的分配型態,最適長
度為7 年,平均落遲長度為4.15年。 2.落遲各期所產生的邊際貢獻,呈
現先遞增再遞減的情形,邊際貢獻最大值發生在落遲第五年。 3.該向投
資的邊際內部報酬率高達187.76% ,就累積效益而言,目前一元的投資在
未來可產生527 元的勞動節省之效益。 4.高報酬率的現象,除了可說明

In order to measure the returns from public investment in
agricultural mechanical innovation,this study indirectly
evaluates this returns through evaluating "value of labor
saved". The lag type and lag length of the investment returns
is estimated by Almon polynominal distributed lag model. With
the concept of discount rate,this study estimated the level of
investment rate of returns by the marginal contribution of each
lag year, and judges from the empirical study whether the
public fund in this research will be able to reach appropriate
level. The result of the research is summerized as follows:
1.Regarding "value of labor saved" as the returns of mechanical
innovation research, under Almon Polynominal distributed lag
model, the distribution type of return from the investment is
polynominal function of degrees of three. Optimum lag length is
7 years and average lag length is 4.15 years. 2.The marginal
contribution for each lag year shows first increase and then
decrease trend. The maximum of marginal contribution occurs in
the fifth lag year. 3.The marginal internal rate of returns in
this investment reaches 187.76%. As for accumulated returns, an
$1 investment at present time might contribute $527 of labor
saved in the future.
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