Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
標題: 旅遊需求的風險管理之研究:以日月潭爲例
Risk Management on Tourism Demand: Sun Moon Lake at Central Mountain in Taiwan
作者: 陳孟谷
Chen, Meng-Gu
關鍵字: Tourism Demand;旅遊需求;Risk Management;Sun Moon Lake;風險管理;日月潭
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
引用: References Alleyne, D., 2006. Can seasonal unit root testing improve the forecasting accuracy of tourist arrivals? Tourism Economics, 12, 45–64. Andrea Guizzardi, Mario Mazzocchi, 2010, Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle, Tourism Management 31 367–377 Anwar, S. M., Jeanneret, C. A., Parrott, L., Marceau, D. J., 2007. Conceptualization and implementation of a multi-agent model to simulate whale-watching tours in the St. Lawrence Estuary in Quebec, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software 22, 1775-1787. Athanasopoulos et al., 2009 G. Athanasopoulos, R.A. Ahmed and R.J. Hyndman, Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism, International Journal of Forecasting 25, pp. 146–166 Bernardo da Veiga, Felix Chan, Michael McAleer, 2008, Modelling the volatility transmission and conditional correlations between A and B shares in forecasting value-at-risk, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 78 155–171 Bollerslev, T. 1986. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307–327. Bonham et al., 2009 C. Bonham, B. Gangnesa and T. Zhoub, 2009, Modeling tourism: a fully identified VECM approach, International Journal of Forecasting 25, pp. 531–549. Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M., 1970. Time series analysis, forecasting and control. San Francisco: Holden Day. Brown, K., Turner, R.K., Hameed, H., Bateman, I., 1997, Environmental carrying capacity and tourism development in the Maldives and Nepal, Environmental Conservation 24 (4), 316–325. Burger, C. J. S. C., Dohnal, M., Kathrada, M., & Law, R. (2001). A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting—a case study of Durban, South Africa. Tourism Management, 22, 403–409. Chan, F., Lim, C., & McAleer, M. 2005. Modelling multivariate international tourism demand and volatility. Tourism Management, 26, 459–471. Coshall, J. T. (2005). A selection strategy for modelling UK tourism flows by air to European destinations. Tourism Economics, 11, 141–158. Daniel, A. C. M., & Ramos, F. F. R., 2002. Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal. International Journal of Tourism Research, 4, 193–209. Eugenio-Martin, J., Sinclair, M. T., & Yeoman, I. (2005). Quantifying the effects of tourism crises: An application to Scotland. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 19, 21–34. European Commission. 2006. A renewed EU tourism policy: Towards a stronger partnership for European tourism. COM (2006) 134 (final). European Commission. 2007. Communication of the commission: Agenda for a sustainable and competitive European tourism. COM (2007) 621 (def). Gil-Alana, L. A. (2005). Modelling international monthly arrivals using seasonal univariate long-memory processes. Tourism Management, 26, 867–878. Gil-Alana et al., 2008 L.A. Gil-Alana, J. Cunado and F.P. Gracia, Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models, Journal of Forecasting 27 (2008), pp. 621–636 Glosten, L., R. Jagannathan and D. Runkle. 1992. “On the relation between the expected value and volatility of nominal excess return on stocks.” Journal of Finance, 46: 1779-1801. Gonza´ lez, P., & Moral, P. 1996. Analysis of tourism trends in Spain. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(4), 739–754. Greenidge, K. 2001. Forecasting tourism demand – an STM approach. Annals of Tourism Research, 28(1), 98–112. Han, Z., Durbarry, R., & Sinclair, M. T., 2006. Modelling US tourism demand for European destinations. Tourism Management, 27, 1–10. Hoti, S.,McAleer, M., & Shareef, R. 2007.Modelling international tourismand country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta. Tourism Management, 28, 1472–1484. Huang, J. H., & Min, J. C. H., 2002. Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: The Taiwan case. Tourism Management, 23, 145–154. IUCN, 1980, World Conservation Strategy. Gland, Switzerland: International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Jang, SooCheong (Shawn), and Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2008, Financial portfolio approach to optimal tourist market mixes, Tourism Management 29 761–770 Joo Hwan Seo, Sung Yong Park, Larry Yu, 2009, The analysis of the relationships of Korean outbound tourism demand: Jeju Island and three international destinations, Tourism Management 30 (2009) 530–543 Jorion. P., 2000, Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk, McGraw-Hill, New York. Jose Angelo Divino, Michael McAleer, 2009, Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon, Environmental Modelling & Software 24 1411–1419 Kulendran, N., & Wilson, K., 2000. Modelling business travel. Tourism Economics, 6, 47–59. Kulendran, N., & Witt, S. F., 2001. Cointegration versus least squares regression. Annals of Tourism Research, 28, 291–311. Kulendran, N., & Witt, S. F. 2003. Forecasting the demand for international business tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 41(3), 265–271. Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. F. 2005. Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, 44(1), 82–99. Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. F., 2006. Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 57–71. Ling, S. and M. McAleer. 2002. Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes. Journal of Econometrics, 106: 109-117. Liu, Z.H., 1994, Tourism development – a systems analysis. In A.V. Seaton et al. (eds) Tourism: The State of the Art (pp. 20–30). Chichester: John Wiley. Liu, Z. H., 2003, Sustainable tourism development: a critique. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 11 (6), 459–475. Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7, 77–91. Pearce, D., Barbier, E. and Markandya, A., 1990. Sustainable development, economics and environment in the Third World, Edward Elgar, Aldershot. Prideaux, B., Laws, E., & Faulkner, B. (2003). Events in Indonesia: Exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations. Tourism Management, 24, 475–487. Ribbe, J., Wolff, J.-O., Staneva, J., Grawe, U., 2008, Assessing water renewal time scales for marine environments from three-dimensional modelling: A case study for Hervey Bay, Australia. Environmental Modelling & Software 23, 1217-1228. Sala, V. Castellani, S., 2009, Sustainable performance index for tourism policy development, Tourism Management xxx 1–10 Shan, J., & Wilson, K., 2001. Causality between trade and tourism: Empirical evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 8, 279–283. Shareef, R., & McAleer, M. 2007. Modelling the uncertainty in international tourist arrivals to the Maldives. Tourism Management, 28, 23–45. Smeral, E., & Wu¨ ger, M. (2005). Does complexity matter? Methods for improving forecasting accuracy in tourism: The case of Australia. Journal of Travel Research, 44, 100–110. Smith, M., & Krannich, R., 1998, Tourism dependence and resident attitudes. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(4), 783}801. Song, H., Romilly, P., & Liu, X. 2000. An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK. Applied Economics, 32, 611–624. Song, H., Gang Li, 2008, Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research, Tourism Management 29 203–220 Song, H., & Witt, S. F., 2003. Tourism forecasting: The general-tospecific approach. Journal of Travel Research, 42, 65–74. Song, H., & Witt, S. F., 2006. Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau. Tourism Management, 27, 214–224. Ticehurst, J. L., Newham, L. T. H., Rissik, D., Letcher, R. A., Jakeman, A. J., 2007. A Bayesian network approach for assessing the sustainability of coastal lakes in New South Wales, Australia. Environmental Modelling & Software 22, 1129-1139. Todaro, M.P., 1994. Economic development in the Third World, Longman, New York. Tourism Bureau (Taiwan), 2004, The development planning of Sun Moon Lake area (日月潭風景特定區觀光整體發展計劃,2004). Tosun, C., 1998, Roots of unsustainable tourism development at the local level: The case of Urgup in Turkey, Tourism Management, 19(6), 595}610. Tosun, C., 2000, Limits to community participation in the tourism development process in developing countries. Tourism Management, 21, 613–633. Tosun, C., 2001, Challenges of sustainable tourism development in the developing world: the case of Turkey, Tourism Management 22 289-303 Turner, L. W., & Witt, S. F. (2001). Forecasting tourism using univariate and multivariate structural time series models. Tourism Economics, 7(2), 135–147. available at Veloce, W., 2004. Forecasting inbound Canadian tourism: An evaluation of error corrections model forecasts. Tourism Economics, 10, 263–280. White, A.T., Rosales, R., 2001, Community-oriented tourism in the Philippines: role in economic development and conservation, In: Go¨ ssling, S. (Ed.), Tourism and Development in Tropical Islands: Political Ecology Perspectives. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 237–262. Witt, S. F., & Song, H., 2000. Forecasting future tourism flows. In S. Medlik, & A. Lockwood (Eds.), Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century (pp. 106–118). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. WTO, 2001, The concept of sustainable tourism. On WWW at http://www.worldtourism. org/sustainable/concepts.htm. Accessed 24.3.02.

This study tries to model tourism demand and the volatility of tourists of Sun Moon Lake by comparing the difference to stochastic trend, seasonality, and volatility between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008. The variations risks in tourism demand predict between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008 with STSM. The long or short run risk persistence is illustrated by modeling the volatility tourism demand with GARCH model. Then the Value of Risk will be calculated according to the volatility from GARCH model. Finally, this study finds that if the administrator pursues a high risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient at less for 100 thousand tourists each month. If the administrator pursues a low risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient for 200 thousand tourists each month. Besides, it is more important for local firms to control operational cost. In February and September, the firms could charge more for increasing revenue. In other months, the firms could just accept the tourists which have made an appointment. Finally, a sustained risk management system needs to be established to keep discovering the risk. This will help to improve the sustainable tourism development planning of Sun Moon Lake.
其他識別: U0005-2601201115051200
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

Show full item record

Google ScholarTM


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.