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Risk Management on Tourism Demand: Sun Moon Lake at Central Mountain in Taiwan
|關鍵字:||Tourism Demand;旅遊需求;Risk Management;Sun Moon Lake;風險管理;日月潭||出版社:||應用經濟學系所||引用:||References Alleyne, D., 2006. Can seasonal unit root testing improve the forecasting accuracy of tourist arrivals? Tourism Economics, 12, 45–64. Andrea Guizzardi, Mario Mazzocchi, 2010, Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle, Tourism Management 31 367–377 Anwar, S. M., Jeanneret, C. A., Parrott, L., Marceau, D. J., 2007. Conceptualization and implementation of a multi-agent model to simulate whale-watching tours in the St. Lawrence Estuary in Quebec, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software 22, 1775-1787. Athanasopoulos et al., 2009 G. Athanasopoulos, R.A. Ahmed and R.J. 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This study tries to model tourism demand and the volatility of tourists of Sun Moon Lake by comparing the difference to stochastic trend, seasonality, and volatility between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008. The variations risks in tourism demand predict between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008 with STSM. The long or short run risk persistence is illustrated by modeling the volatility tourism demand with GARCH model. Then the Value of Risk will be calculated according to the volatility from GARCH model. Finally, this study finds that if the administrator pursues a high risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient at less for 100 thousand tourists each month. If the administrator pursues a low risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient for 200 thousand tourists each month. Besides, it is more important for local firms to control operational cost. In February and September, the firms could charge more for increasing revenue. In other months, the firms could just accept the tourists which have made an appointment. Finally, a sustained risk management system needs to be established to keep discovering the risk. This will help to improve the sustainable tourism development planning of Sun Moon Lake.
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