Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28533
標題: 台灣、日本與南韓電腦產業對中國大陸的出口貿易競爭分析
Export Competition Analysis of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea Computer Industry in Mainland China
作者: 趙育信
Chao, Yu-Hsin
關鍵字: Export Competition;出口貿易競爭;Export Forecast;Structural Time Series Model;Computer Industry;出口預測;結構時間序列;電腦產業
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 
台灣、日本與南韓電腦產業長期對中國大陸市場進行出口貿易競爭,然而,近年來台灣電腦產業對中國大陸出口貿易額開始呈現大幅下降趨勢。台灣是否能在未來持續和日本與南韓進行出口貿易競爭,值得進一步研究。本研究對1989至2009年間的出口貿易額月資料進行分析,並預測2010至2011年間出口貿易額的成長。本研究實證結果顯示,在預測出口貿易額方面,一般結構時間序列模型(GSTSM)比基本結構時間序列模型(BSTSM)來得準確。根據一般結構時間序列模型對於出口貿易額的預測,日本電腦產業可能在未來兩年內擊敗韓國電腦產業。而台灣電腦產業的貿易額下降幅度最小,意味著貿易額的衰退將在兩年內達到一定程度,台灣電腦產業仍有機會在兩年內縮短與競爭對手日本、南韓對中國大陸出口貿易額的差距。

Taiwan computer industry has been competing with Japan and South Korea in the export trade to Mainland China for a long time. However, the computer industry export value from Taiwan to Mainland China showed a dramatically downward trend in recent years. It is worthy of a further study to reveal whether Taiwan can still compete with major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the future or not.
This study analyzes the monthly export values during 1989-2009 and then forecasts the growth of the values during 2010-2011. The empirical results of this study confirm that the general structural time series model (GSTSM) has better performances than the basic structural time series model (BSTSM) in predicting and forecasting the computer industry export values from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to Mainland China. According to the forecasting results from the GSTSM, Japan may beat South Korea in the computer industry export value in the next two years, which may be due to its irreplaceable skills in manufacturing. The empirical results also indicate that Taiwan will have the smallest decline of export value, which means that the decline may reach a certain degree and there will be no more dramatic changes. As long as Taiwan computer firms work harder to set up appropriate overseas strategies and to make R&D and the key manufacturing skills be kept and be innovated in Taiwan, Taiwan will still have a great chance to minimize the gap of export values between Taiwan and major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the overseas market such as Mainland China.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28533
其他識別: U0005-2807201018254100
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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