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標題: 台灣、日本與南韓電腦產業對中國大陸的出口貿易競爭分析
Export Competition Analysis of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea Computer Industry in Mainland China
作者: 趙育信
Chao, Yu-Hsin
關鍵字: Export Competition;出口貿易競爭;Export Forecast;Structural Time Series Model;Computer Industry;出口預測;結構時間序列;電腦產業
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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Taiwan computer industry has been competing with Japan and South Korea in the export trade to Mainland China for a long time. However, the computer industry export value from Taiwan to Mainland China showed a dramatically downward trend in recent years. It is worthy of a further study to reveal whether Taiwan can still compete with major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the future or not.
This study analyzes the monthly export values during 1989-2009 and then forecasts the growth of the values during 2010-2011. The empirical results of this study confirm that the general structural time series model (GSTSM) has better performances than the basic structural time series model (BSTSM) in predicting and forecasting the computer industry export values from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to Mainland China. According to the forecasting results from the GSTSM, Japan may beat South Korea in the computer industry export value in the next two years, which may be due to its irreplaceable skills in manufacturing. The empirical results also indicate that Taiwan will have the smallest decline of export value, which means that the decline may reach a certain degree and there will be no more dramatic changes. As long as Taiwan computer firms work harder to set up appropriate overseas strategies and to make R&D and the key manufacturing skills be kept and be innovated in Taiwan, Taiwan will still have a great chance to minimize the gap of export values between Taiwan and major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the overseas market such as Mainland China.
其他識別: U0005-2807201018254100
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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