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Export Competition Analysis of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea Computer Industry in Mainland China
|關鍵字:||Export Competition;出口貿易競爭;Export Forecast;Structural Time Series Model;Computer Industry;出口預測;結構時間序列;電腦產業||出版社:||應用經濟學系所||引用:||Box, G. E. P. and D. A. Pierce (1970). Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65(332), 1509-1526. Box, G. E. P. and G. W. Jenkins (1976). Time Series Analysis. Forecasting and Control, Revised Edition, Holden-day, San Francisco. Broadstock, D. C. and A. Collins (2010). Measuring unobserved prices using the structural time-series model: The case of cycling. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(4), 195-200. Chang, L. T. (2009). Export competitiveness of Taiwan's electronic industry in ASEAN market. Master Degree Thesis, National Chung-Hsing University, Taiwan. Chen, F. and T. M. Gao (2005). The application study on economic forecast of the structure time series model. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,22(2), 22-36. Chen, F. and T. M. Gao (2007). The Application of the structure time series model on seasonal adjustment - compared with x-12 seasonal adjustment method. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2007(11), 7-14. Chen, L. C. (2002). The Study of Taiwan-Based Notebook Manufacturers' Degrees and Performance of Industrial Transference to China. EMBA Master Degree Thesis, Tamkang University, Taiwan. Chiang, S. Y. and G. G. Wong (2010). Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.014. Engle, R. F. (1978). Estimating structural models of seasonality, in Zellner, A. ed., Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC, 281-297. Fadiga, M. (2004). Structural time series analysis of U.S. cotton exports. 2004 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, San Antonio, TX- January 5-9, 613-317. Gao, Y. M. and Z. Y. Qi (2008). Estimating total factor productivity based on time-varying parameter. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 26(2), 16-24. Greenidge, K. (2001). Forecasting Tourism Demand An STM Approach, Annals of Tourism Research, 28(1), 98-112. Greene, W. H. (1993). Econometric Analysis. 2nded., New York: Macmillan Publishing Co. Harvey A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Harvey A. C. and A. Jaeger (1991), Detrending, stylized facts and the business cycle. Mimeo, Department of Statistics, London School of Economics. Harvey A. C. and Shephard, Neil (1993). Structural Time Series Models , Handbook of Statistics, 11, 261-302. Hansen, B. E. (2001). The new econometrics of structural change: dating breaks in U.S. labor productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117-128. Ho, W. R. J. and C. J. Chien (2007). A study of relationship between international stock market, bond market and business cycles-an application of state space model. Journal of Performance and Strategy Research, 4(1), 71-92. Hsu, J. T. K. and W. J. Tu (2005). Study on Taiwan's export competitiveness in ASEAN after Taiwan and Mainland China joined the WTO. Chung Hua Journal of Management, S (2) , 1-9. Kapombe, C. M. and Dale Colyer (1998). Modeling US broiler supply response: a structural time series approach”, Agricultural and Resource Review, 27(2), 241-251. Kapombe, C. M. and Dale Colyer (1999). “A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports”, Agricultural Economics 21, 295-307. Muscatelli, A., P. Tirelli and C. Trecroci(2001). Monetary and fiscal policy interactions over the cycle: some empirical evidence," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002. Sheu, S. H. and T. M. Kuo (2009). A study on global logistics management and cluster effect in notebook OEMs. ICIM2009, 1701-1711. Tawadros, G. B. (2008). A structural time series test of the monetary model of exchange rates under four big inflations. Economic Modelling, 25(6), 1216-1224. Thury, G. and S. F. Witt (1998). Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models, Omega. Int. J. Mgnn Sci. 26(6), 751-767. Tseng, S. H. and C. C. Wang (2003). The impact of Asian financial crisis on the dynamics process of Mainland China's exports - the application of time series models. Journal of Taiwan Intelligent Technologies and Applied Statistics, 1(1), 43-66. Yu, Y. P., P. F. Guo, W. Liang and Z. M. Qian (2006), Economic analysis basing on state space form. Journal of Xiamen University (Natural Science), 45(Sup.), 323-326.||摘要:||
Taiwan computer industry has been competing with Japan and South Korea in the export trade to Mainland China for a long time. However, the computer industry export value from Taiwan to Mainland China showed a dramatically downward trend in recent years. It is worthy of a further study to reveal whether Taiwan can still compete with major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the future or not.
This study analyzes the monthly export values during 1989-2009 and then forecasts the growth of the values during 2010-2011. The empirical results of this study confirm that the general structural time series model (GSTSM) has better performances than the basic structural time series model (BSTSM) in predicting and forecasting the computer industry export values from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to Mainland China. According to the forecasting results from the GSTSM, Japan may beat South Korea in the computer industry export value in the next two years, which may be due to its irreplaceable skills in manufacturing. The empirical results also indicate that Taiwan will have the smallest decline of export value, which means that the decline may reach a certain degree and there will be no more dramatic changes. As long as Taiwan computer firms work harder to set up appropriate overseas strategies and to make R&D and the key manufacturing skills be kept and be innovated in Taiwan, Taiwan will still have a great chance to minimize the gap of export values between Taiwan and major competitors such as Japan and South Korea in the overseas market such as Mainland China.
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