溫室氣體的環境顧志耐曲線之估計--PanelModel之應用

Abstract

環境顧志耐曲線（Environmental Kuznets Curve，EKC）假說，主要是在描述「人均所得」與「環境品質或污染排放」之間呈現倒U字型的關係，亦即：環境污染的程度會隨著一國經濟的成長而惡化，然而到達某一個轉折點時，環境品質便會隨著所得增加而有所改善。而在過去十年多，也有無數的研究著重在EKC的探討上，他們運用了不同的模型、資料型態來分析各種的污染物，但這些研究很少著重在溫室氣體排放的探討上。 然而在工業革命以後，經濟加速成長，農業和工業部門的生產增加，資源大量的使用，進而排放過量的溫室氣體到大氣中，而產生了溫室效應，導致全球氣候變遷。由於溫室氣體是一種很特別的污染物，其所產生的影響是全球性而非當地性的，故本研究採用Panel model來進行溫室氣體之環境顧志耐曲線的實證分析。此外，本文更進一步地與聖嬰現象做結合，分析溫室氣體的排放量對聖嬰現象的強弱與發生機率之影響。最後，再藉由本文的實證結果進行預測。

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis suggests that an inverted U relationship exists between environmental degradation and income per capita. In the past decade, numerous studies have been focused on testing the EKC hypothesis but they were not paid attention to the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGES). Since GHGS are special pollutants that create global, not local. This paper analyzes the relationship between GDP per capita and GHGES from the global point of view. Our major estimated results show that the EKC for each gas are consistent with an inverted-U shaped in 28 Annex I country's samples. However, such hypothesis for the global environmental Kuznets curve is not proved. Furthermore, the change of strength and occurrence probabilities of the El Ni o and La Ni a from increasing carbon dioxide emission is also tested and estimated. The strength of the El Ni o (or La Ni a) and the probabilities of occurrence of the El Ni o and La Ni a will be increased if the carbon dioxide emission increases.