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標題: 和平險中求-以生物武器嚇阻中國之經濟分析
Looking for Peace in the Most Dangerous Situation-An economic analysis of using biological weapons to deter China
作者: 黃思蘋
關鍵字: biological weapons;生物武器;collaboration;sequential games;attrition;deterrence;衝突模型;序列賽局;戰損;嚇阻
出版社: 應用經濟學研究所
台海兩岸經貿關係往來頻繁,但政治衝突不斷;中國不放棄武力征服台灣,且台灣是中國權力擴張的一個重要關鍵,也是強權競爭的重要籌碼,目前的和平彷彿是「剃刀邊緣的均衡」。在台灣面對中國的態勢中,軍事實力是與經濟實力成正比的,目前中國的整體經濟實力保守計算是台灣的五倍,且此種差距日漸擴大,依靠傳統武器不足以防衛台灣,引發本文探討以生物武器作為嚇阻工具的動機,以台灣具有所須之生物醫學及科技,及生物武器的巨大毀滅性,結合賽局理論來分析是否能用生物武器嚇阻中國,以達到維持台灣安全的目的。所用之賽局包括基本的序列賽局,資訊不對稱的序列賽局以及Peter Stauvermann的重複序列賽局衝突模型。套用台灣與中國的經濟實力(雙方GDP值),探討兩岸發生戰爭的可能性,區別和平與戰爭的範圍,並加入發動戰爭後所可能造成的兩國戰損,分別評估雙方使用傳統武器及生物武器對抗所造成的結果(和平或戰爭),研究生物武器是否真能嚇阻戰事的發生,帶來兩岸和平的相處模式。我們得到結果是:在許多情況下以生物武器嚇阻中國是可能成功的。上述結果可作為我方在兩岸談判上之籌碼。即使我方未發展生物武器,只要台灣之科技水準夠強,基於生物武器研發之隱匿性,本研究結果仍然對我方在兩岸談判上有所助益。

Taiwan and Mainland China have some subtle relationships. The trades and investments between Taiwan and China have being increasing significantly since 1980s. However, China never gives up using forces to attack Taiwan. So people in Taiwan live on a knife-edge between peace and war. The militarily strength is proportional to the Economic strength. China's economy is about five times of Taiwan's, and the gap is increasing. Purely relying on the tradition weapons is not sufficient to protect Taiwan. Biological weapons are powerful and hard to be uncovered. Taiwan has the necessary biological, medical, and scientific technologies to develop and deploy biological weapons. Thus this thesis applies game theories to investigate the possibility of using biological weapons to deter China and to maintain the peace. The games used are a basic sequential game, a sequential game with asymmetric information, and Peter Stauvermann's repeated sequential game conflict model. Taiwan's GDP and China's GDP are adopted to evaluate the possibilities of war and peace. Attritions are incorporated into the model to make the model more realistic. Both tradition wars and biological wars are simulated. We found that in many situations, the tremendous loss of the biological war can deter the ambition of the relatively strong party, China, to start a war. Using biological weapons to maintain peace is feasible. This results can help Taiwan on the negations with China even Taiwan does not develop biological weapons, as long as Taiwan is able to develop such weapons secretly and in no time.
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