Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28766
標題: 因應氣候變遷的水資源管理策略之研究
The Study on the Water Resources Management Strategies Adapting to Climate Change
作者: 邱泰穎
CHIOU, TAI-YING
關鍵字: climate change;氣候變遷;water resources;demand management;水資源;需求面管理
出版社: 應用經濟學研究所
摘要: 
許多文獻的研究結果均指出,氣候暖化的主要影響將是水資源。因為溫度上升會加速水文的循環,改變了降雨與逕流的時機與規模,以及改變水災、旱災的強度與頻率,水資源規劃也會因降雨與逕流型態改變而改變,海平面上升影響沿岸淡水供應,人口也會因此而遷移,如此均會影響水資源的供給與需求。
為了因應未來水資源的供需變動,使用水更有效率,需求面的管理就顯得格外重要。在未來數十年,需求面管理將是處理因氣候變遷改變水資源供需的理想方法。Parry and Carter 曾於1986年的一篇文章中指出,河川流量機率分配的平均數與變異性對水資源規劃者而言,是相當有用的資訊。因此,本文嘗試以降雨變異係數與溫度變異係數,取代傳統之平均降雨量與平均溫度作為影響水資源供需的氣候因素。
本研究主要目的在於研擬因應氣候變遷的水資源管理策略,為達到研究目的,首先建立氣候因素與水資源供需關係方程式,以最大概似法估計係數值。然後再進一步建立氣候變遷與水資源管理策略之情境模擬,以線性規劃法估計各類型供水與用水福利值,以此作為研擬因應策略的基礎。因受限於資料取得而以台灣南部地區作為實證對象。經由實證分析結果,以降雨變異係數與溫度變異係數取代傳統之氣候因素表示方法,可反映出氣候因素對水資源供需的影響。
根據本文模擬分析結果,為因應氣候變遷,水資源管理策略可採以下方式:
1.建立完善的農業用水補償機制。
2.加強基礎建設因應。
3.加強地面水與地下水的聯合管理。
4.進行全面水需求評價。
5.訂定適當且合理化之水價。
6.成立水銀行。

There is broad agreement that greenhouse warming will have several major impacts on water resources. Warmer temperatures will accelerate the hydrological cycle, changing precipitation, the magnitude and timing of runoff and the intensity and frequency of both floods and droughts. This is likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts shall follow on from these effects and bring about changes in water demand and supply.
Demand management is critical for achieving more efficient water use and in responding to any change however, in future supplies and demands. Demand management measures are more than adequate to deal with plausible climate-induced changes in water supplies and demands over the next several decades. Parry and Carter(1986)shows the mean of a probability distribution of streamflows and the variability ought to be very useful to the water planner. This research tried to replace these two traditional climate factors with climatic variability indicators.
Climate change and water management scenario models developed in this thesis are used to estimate the influence of climate change on the economic welfare of water demands and supplies, and will attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources for southern Taiwan. Conclusions include both the precipitation variability as well as the temperature variability indicators as two better indicators of water demands and supply than the average precipitation and temperature: which have often been used as the principal climatic factors.
The several options for water management adaptation present in this thesis are as follows:
-, Establish a comprehensive compensating system for agricultural water transference.
-, Strengthen infrastructure design in adapting to climate change.
-, Identify ways to sustainably manage supplies, including the integration of ground and surface water management.
-, Evaluating water demand adapting to climate change.
-, Rational pricing decisions.
-, The establishment of emergency water banks.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28766
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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