台灣因應液態乳開放進口政策效果之評估

Abstract

研 究 摘 要 為因應世界貿易自由化之趨勢，我國積極尋求加入世界貿易組織WTO，而依據入會諮商談判結果，未來液態乳將以關稅配額方式開放進口，此將使向來受政府保護之酪農業遭受衝擊。政府農業部門之酪農產業主要以「提昇競爭力」措施進行產業體質改善以資因應，但在國內生乳成本與品質均難以與國外主要出口國家競爭下，其因應策略之政策效果有待謹慎評估。 有鑑於液態乳開放之國內因應政策措施可能組合並非唯一，本研究旨在分析我國目前因應未來市場開放之較適酪農產業政策措施內容，透過與另一因應措施組合之比較，以進行政策效果評估。兩種政策措施組合分別為方案一：「提昇競爭力」政策之主要實施專案「淘汰低生產效率與低生乳品質之乳牛」，以及方案二：「計畫性減產」搭配「所得分離給付」，本文利用社會福利分析方法，剖析所設定兩種不同政策措施組合所產生的福利效果。依據評估結果得到下列結論： 一、 採方案一使我國生乳供給大幅減少而價格上升；且在採關稅配額進口後，將因國內價格高於配額外之稅後價格，使配額外關稅不足以達到禁止性關稅之保護目的，而必需考慮配額外進口對國內市場之影響。 二、 採方案一使消費者剩餘、乳品廠商生產者剩餘與酪農生產者剩餘均減少，政府配額內稅收不變，配額外之稅收因有配額外進口而增加，政府支出亦增加。 三、採方案二因「計畫性減產」使國內總供給量維持不變，故消費者剩餘不變，且採行「所得分離給付」使酪農生產者剩餘趨近於不變。但因國內供給量下降，故使乳品廠商生產者剩餘減少。配額內稅收不變，沒有配額外稅收，惟政府需支付所得分離給付之款項。 四、實施方案二較實施方案一之社會福利變動較小，不論消費者剩餘或廠商及酪農生產者剩餘均變動較小。政府稅收方面，配額內稅收相同，但方案一有配額外稅收，方案二則無。政府支出金額方面，方案二之政府支出金額較方案一多。 五、雖然單就政府支出之成本而言，方案二之成本高於方案一，但若將整體生產者剩餘、消費者剩餘與政府稅收換算成幣值計算時，方案一之成本遠大於方案二。

Assessing the Effectiveness of Derived Policies Responding to the Fluid Milk Market Opening in Taiwan Abstract Facing the trend toward world agricultural trade liberalization, Taiwan has made promises on the import release of fluid milk under tariff-quota system. The Council of Agriculture (COA) implements the project of "Improving the Competitiveness of Agricultural Industries" for the improvement of the competitiveness and of the domestic dairy industry. The fact that Taiwan has no cost and quality advantage of milk production as compared to the main milk exporting countries. As a result, the effectiveness of the derived policies responding to the fluid milk market opening has to be assessed carefully. It is realized that the effective policy measures may be flexible in combination for the market opening of fluid milk. This study tries to find a better combination of dairy policy measures between two most possible scenarios. The first policy scenario is the project of "improving the competitiveness of dairy industries" with the key measurement of "eliminating the low productivity and low milk quality cows ". The second policy scenario is the combination of "scheduled production deduction" and "decoupled income support". Welfare analysis is applied to calculate the welfare changes between the two scenarios. The conclusions may be listed as followings: 1. The adoption of the first scenario leads significant reduction on raw milk supply and increased price. When the tariff-quota system is applied, the domestic price will be higher than the cost of the out-of-quota imports. In other words, the high out-of-quota tariff is not prohibitive, and the possible effects of the out-of-quota imports must be taken into consideration. 2. The adoption of the first scenario reduces the surpluses of consumers, milk producers and dairy firms. The tax revenue from quota imports is unchanged while the tax revenue from the possible out-of-quota imports is increased. And the government cost is increased. 3. The adoption of the second scenario on "scheduled production deduction "will keep domestic supply and consumer surplus unchanged. The adoption of the "decoupled income support" leads milk producer''s surplus at the same level. The reduced domestic supply creates decreased surplus for dairy firms. For the government, the decoupled payment is the only burden, while the tax revenue from the in-quota imports is unchanged and no tax revenue from the out-of-quota imports. 4. The changed social welfare to implement the second scenario is smaller than that to implement the first scenario. All consumers'', producers'' and dairy firms'' surpluses are changed at a smaller magnitude. The tax revenue from the in-quota imports is the same for the two policy scenarios. There is possible tax revenue from the out-of-quota imports in the first scenario, but the second scenario does not have. Moreover, government payment in the second scenario is more than that in the first scenario. 5. To convert the surplus and tax revenue into peculiar term, the deficits resulted from the first scenario will be far greater than that from the second scenario.