契稅、土地增值稅及遺產稅調降影響地方政府賦稅收入之研究

Abstract

本文透過分析我國地方政府縣市改制前後資料，以1991年至2010年共20年之長期追蹤資料（panel data ），採計量方式之固定效果模型及敘述統計，分析自1999年以來政府施行調降契稅稅率、土地增值稅稅率減半徵收及調降土地增值稅與遺產稅稅率對地方政府賦稅收入之影響。

研究結果發現調降契稅稅率及遺產稅稅率均造成契稅及遺產稅稅收顯著減少；僅土地增值稅稅率減半徵收使土地增值稅稅收增加。該稅收增加之持續性為何，是否有寅吃卯糧之情形，造成未來土地增值稅稅銳減，尚待驗證。惟繼土地增值稅稅率減半徵收後，政府接續調降土地增值稅稅率，該政策顯著增加土地增值稅及遺產稅稅收。但觀察土地增值稅稅收趨勢圖，減稅期間該稅收占地方政府稅課收入最低為20%，最高與未減稅期間該稅收占地方政府稅課收入最高63%相去甚遠，與未減稅時最低19%相同。因此本文認為該等減稅之財政政策對提振經濟之效果有限。

此外，本文研究結果發現，總人口數及平均每人可支配所得與地方政府賦稅收入呈現正向關係，而且達到顯著水準。因此本文認為政府以調降契稅、土地增值稅稅率減半徵收及調降土地增值稅與遺產稅稅率造成地方政府稅收減損及稅基侵蝕並有違租稅公平，使稅收損失難以彌補，若不積極另闢財源，未來將使赤字比例攀升，造成地方財政危機。而究其良好財政體質之根本與整個經濟環境之總體面息息相關，例如：平均每人可支配所得及總人口數均為稅收與經濟之根源。

Based upon the long-term traced data from 1991 to 2010, totally twenty(20) years (panel data), this paper analyzes the pre- and post-revised system of the local governments in Taiwan. Through the adoption of quantitative fixed effect model and descriptive statistical analysis of the enforced half-imposed reduction of contract tax rate, land value-added tax rate and the influence of such rate dropping of land value-added tax and inheritance tax cast upon the revenue of the local government since 1999.

It is found in the outcome of study the reduction of contract tax rate and inheritance tax have caused conspicuous drop in revenue of both contract and inheritance taxes, and only the half-imposed land value-added tax rate increased the land value-added revenue. Whether the continual status of such revenue increment will make it an advance collection of future lot and eventually sharply drop down the oncoming land value-added tax collection is yet to be examined. However, subsequent to the half-imposed land value-added tax rate, the government goes on to reduce the land value-added tax rate of which the policy has notably raised the revenue of land value-added and inheritance taxes. But, in an observation of the trend chart of land value-added tax collection, tax reduction period takes the revenue of local government by 20% minimum and 29% maximum, keeping a far great distance from the 63% maximum of the local government revenue from such tax prior to reduction, and a near 19% minimum of the same. Therefore, this paper concludes the effect of financial policy of such tax reduction contributes fairly little to boost the economy.

Moreover, the outcome of this paper discovers the population total and average distributable income per capita is rather conspicuously shown in positive relationship to the tax revenue of the local government. Therefore, this paper is of the opinion the reduction by means of half-imposed tax rate of contract tax and land value-added tax and such rate dropping of land value-added tax and inheritance tax by the government have caused the shrinking and loss of revenue and tax basis erosion of the local government that further breaches the fairness in taxation resulting in not mendable tax losses if other financial resources are not positively exploited, the future proportional hiking of deficit ratio will create financial crisis to the local government. To probe into the foundation of good financial constitution and its close relation to the overall aspect of entire economic environment, such as the average distributable income and population total are the sources of revenue and economy.