Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28967
標題: 新社花海遊憩效益與遊客評價之研究
A Study on Recreational Benefits and Tourists'' Evaluations for Flowers Festival in Xinshe
作者: 李守銘
Li, Shou-Ming
關鍵字: 新社花海;Xinshe Flowers Festival;消費者剩餘;旅行成本法;現場波松;Consumer surplus;Travel Cost Method;On-Site Poisson
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 
自2006年起辦理的「新社花海」,為臺灣中部地區重要的農業休閒推廣活動之ㄧ,政府投入預算的目的即是創造遊客遊憩效益及提升農業休閒或觀光產業收益,而參觀新社花海活動並不需要支付任何門票費用,個別展示館亦無收費,無法以一般市場財貨方式來評估新社花海遊憩效益,必須採取非市場財的評估方式。另外,活動參觀人數達150萬人次,新社花海周邊道路產生「塞車」的情況,因此,將塞車時間納入旅遊成本,以避免產生遊憩效益偏估。
本研究利用TCM建立新社花海的遊憩需求實證模型,並以計數模型中TNBES及On-Site Poisson模型來修正截斷與內生分層問題,遊憩效益部分係採取消費者剩餘為計算標準,遊客評價部分採取Ordered Probit模型分析,遊客對於新社花海各項因素滿意度部分,則以因素分析及集群分析將樣本資料區分為三大因素及二大集群,以探討遊客滿意度各項因素組成。
研究結果顯示:(1)影響新社花海旅遊次數的因素包含遊客旅行成本低、騎機車、女性、年長者、所得較低者、假日參觀者及遊客評價高者,參觀新社花海次數相對較多。(2)實證估計將塞車時間納入旅行成本,則新社花海每人每次遊憩效益為1753元,遊憩效益為13億1475萬元,如未納入塞車時間,消費者剩餘將達1878元,遊憩效益將達14億850萬元,表示旅行成本如未納入塞車時間,將高估消費者剩餘每人每次125元,遊憩效益高估達9375萬元。(3)遊客對於新社花海園區規劃主因素構面滿意度最高,人員服務主因素構面次之,友善設施主因素構面整體滿意度較低;如果以單項滿意度問項,以整體園區視覺景觀設計得分最高,停車空間及對外交通便利性問項得分最低。

Flowers Festival in Xinshe is an important agricultural leisure event in the central Taiwan region, The purposes of government budgets executing are creating tourist recreation benefit, promoting agricultural leisure and tourism industry earnings. However, The visitor do not need to pay any entrance fee for Xinshe Flowers Festival, Therefore, the researchers unable to use market mechanisms to assess the benefit of recreation, but using methods of non-market mechanisms. Moreover, the number of visitors reached 1.5 million;the roads around Xinshe will result in traffic jam. Avoiding partial estimate of the benefit of recreation, the traffic jam time costs must be included in the travel cost.
This research applies travel cost method to analysis recreational experience and recreational benefits for the tourists who visit Xinshe Flowers Festival, and compared with two model in truncated negative binomial and on-site Poisson model to amend the truncation and endogenous stratification. This research use CS to estimate the benefit of recreation, and using Ordered Probit model to analyze tourists’ evaluation which divides all satisfaction factor analysis and cluster analysis into three factors and two clusters, and explore the composition factor of satisfaction.
This research concludes that:(1)The number of trip times relatively more for visiting Xinshe Flower Festival is dependent on the factors: the lower travel cost, motorcyclist, women, the elderly, low income, holiday visitors and greater tourists evaluation. (2)The empirical estimates traffic jam time cost into the travel costs, the benefit for Xinshe Flowers Festival are NT$1753 per person, total recreation benefit reach NT$1.31475 billion. If travel time costs are not included in the traffic jam time cost, the benefit for Xinshe Flowers Festival are NT$1878 per person, total recreation benefit reach NT$1.4085 billion. It means the benefit for Xinshe Flowers Festival overestimate the CS NT$125 per person and overestimate recreation benefit are 93.75 million.(3) The park planning is the main factors of tourist highest overall satisfaction item for Xinshe Flowers Festival, The personnel service is second item, and the friendly facilities is the third. On the individual satisfaction items, the highest score section is overall visual landscape of the Xinshe Flowers Festival, and the lowest score section is the planning of parking space and external transport.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28967
其他識別: U0005-1608201221185000
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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