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標題: 開放陸客來台觀光對旅遊季節性之影響─以日月潭國家風景區為例
The Impact of Opening Mainland Tourists to Visit Taiwan on the Seasonality of Tourism:A Case Study at Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area
作者: 黃錦詳
Huang, Jin-Siang
關鍵字: 結構時間序列模型;STSM;日月潭國家風景區;結構變動;季節性;開放大陸觀光客;Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area;structural changes;seasonality;opening mainland tourists
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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  近幾年觀光旅遊產業是各國積極發展的產業,台灣也順應世界潮流積極推廣觀光旅遊業,日月潭為台灣現有13處國家風景區之一,其獨特的地理環境與人文特色國際上具有相當的知名度,日月潭觀光產業發展至今,每月的旅遊人次的變化相當的大,所以本研究欲探討旅遊人次是否發生結構變動以及結構變動後季節性是否亦發生改變,經Zivot and Adrews(1992) 以及Lumsdaine and Papell(1997)將結構變動點內生化的單根檢定的估測,發現於2004年1月以及2009年1月發生結構變動,第一次的結構變動平均旅遊人次約增加5萬人次,而第二次結構變動平均旅遊人次約增加12萬人次,本研究將日月潭旅遊發展分為三個階段:地方風景區時期、國家風景區時期開放陸客前與國家風景區時期開放陸客後。

其他識別: U0005-2407201215091200
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