Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/29035
標題: 開放陸客來台觀光對旅遊季節性之影響─以日月潭國家風景區為例
The Impact of Opening Mainland Tourists to Visit Taiwan on the Seasonality of Tourism:A Case Study at Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area
作者: 黃錦詳
Huang, Jin-Siang
關鍵字: 結構時間序列模型;STSM;日月潭國家風景區;結構變動;季節性;開放大陸觀光客;Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area;structural changes;seasonality;opening mainland tourists
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 
  近幾年觀光旅遊產業是各國積極發展的產業,台灣也順應世界潮流積極推廣觀光旅遊業,日月潭為台灣現有13處國家風景區之一,其獨特的地理環境與人文特色國際上具有相當的知名度,日月潭觀光產業發展至今,每月的旅遊人次的變化相當的大,所以本研究欲探討旅遊人次是否發生結構變動以及結構變動後季節性是否亦發生改變,經Zivot and Adrews(1992) 以及Lumsdaine and Papell(1997)將結構變動點內生化的單根檢定的估測,發現於2004年1月以及2009年1月發生結構變動,第一次的結構變動平均旅遊人次約增加5萬人次,而第二次結構變動平均旅遊人次約增加12萬人次,本研究將日月潭旅遊發展分為三個階段:地方風景區時期、國家風景區時期開放陸客前與國家風景區時期開放陸客後。
  經本研究的估測,STSM(結構時間數列模型)對於各階段旅遊人次的的配適能力優於Box-Jenkins時間序列模型,比較各階段STSM所估計出的季節效果後,發現2月及6月一直分別為日月潭國家風景區的最明顯的旺季與淡季,兩者的差距越來越大,若將各階段平均旅遊人次納入考量,則國家風景區時期開放陸客前的相對風險為最高。
  根據交通部觀光局與日月潭國家風景區管理處所提供的資料,開放陸客後(2009(1)-2011(12)),平均每月約有12萬人次的陸客來台,其中將近七成約8.2萬人次的陸客會到日月潭觀光旅遊,陸客對日月潭的喜愛可見一斑,所以除了各階段的比較分析,本研究亦針對開放陸客後所有遊客、陸客以及非陸客的季節性做比較,實證結果顯示陸客的湧入填補了非陸客在非旺季時旅遊人次的空缺,增加觀光資源的利用率,若以吉尼係數做衡量旅遊人次的變異程度,開放陸客後(2009(1)-2011(12))非陸客的吉尼係數為0.17而總旅遊人次為0.14,可以看出陸客的湧入改善了日月潭國家風景區旅遊人次的變異程度。

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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/29035
其他識別: U0005-2407201215091200
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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