Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/34160
標題: 宜蘭地區颱風降雨與地形、空間分布關係之探討
Study on the Relationship of Typhoon Rainfall, Topography and Spatial Distribution in I-Lan Area
作者: 林淑玲
Lin, Shu-Ling
關鍵字: 多元線性迴歸;Multiple Linear Regression;補克利金法;空間分布;Cokriging;spatial distribution
出版社: 水土保持學系
摘要: 
中文摘要
台灣地處西太平洋之亞熱帶,且位於颱風常經之路徑上,由於颱風降雨量及降雨強度常與颱風的路徑、強度、水汽含量、雲雨分布、及地形有關,並造成降雨在時、空上分布不均勻,而每年颱風豪雨造成的生命財產損失更是所有災害之首。位於台灣東北部的宜蘭,更是歷年來颱風登陸台灣最常經過之處,本研究以宜蘭地區為例,擬對颱風降雨與地形及空間分布關係做一系列探討,期能對颱風雨量作預估,使有助於災害防救及水資源的規劃與分析。
本研究蒐集1971~1999年侵台颱風降雨資料,探討颱風強度、颱風路徑及地形因素與降雨量及降雨強度之關係,利用多元線性迴歸的方法,進行宜蘭地區颱風路徑降雨推估模式之建立。並以區域化變數理論補克利金(Cokriging)地理統計法作出考慮高程、坡度及坡向之宜蘭地區歷年各路徑颱風最大降雨空間分布圖,期能了解宜蘭地區颱風降雨與地形及空間分布特性。
由本研究的結果顯示,第一、第二及第四類路徑的颱風對本區域的影響較直接。在降雨量方面,以北端之福山、太平山及位於東南方的樟林附近為本區域降雨量較多的地方。在降雨強度方面,以福山及位於東南方的樟林、新寮及大濁水一帶屬強雨區。經迴歸分析檢定,以高程及颱風中心最大風速為各路徑颱風迴歸模式中影響降雨之最大的因子,配合區域化變數理論補克利金地理統計法推估宜蘭地區歷年各路徑颱風最大降雨量分布圖,更能表現宜蘭地區降雨與地形及空間分布之情形。

Abstract
Taiwan is located at the subtropical area of western Pacific and on the path of typhoons. Owing to rainfall intensity and rainfall of typhoons are highly related to path, intensity, vapor content, structure of typhoons and topography, results in rain falls disproportionate distribution in time and space. For this reason, serious disasters in Taiwan are often occurred during typhoon events. I-Lan, located at the northeastern Taiwan, is one of county which typhoon attacked most frequently. Therefore, this study focuses not only on discussing spatial distribution of typhoon precipitation among characteristics of topography like as elevation, slope and aspect of I-Lan , but also intend to disaster prevention and improve water conservancy administration and development.
The rainfall record of typhoon events from 1971 to 1999 is based on Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs. The relation among typhoon degree, typhoon path, factors of topography, the rainfall intensity and rainfall of typhoon were analyzed and establish Multiple Linear Regression models. Then, considering characteristics of topography like as elevation, slope and aspect, using Cokriging method to draw spatial distribution map of I-Lan which display typhoon precipitation.
The results indicates that the first, second, and forth path of typhoon directly impact to I-Lan area. Regarding to the precipitation , northern Fu-Shan, TaiPing-Shan and east-southern Zhang-Lin are the heavy rainfall region. For the rainfall intensity, Fu-Shan east-southern Zhang-Lin, Xin-Liao, Da-ZhuoShui have high intensity. By Regression analysis method, it is found that elevation and the maximal wind speed near typhoon center have important effect on rainfall. In addition, spatial distribution of rainfall in I-Lan area displays clearly by Cokriging method.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/34160
Appears in Collections:水土保持學系

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