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標題: Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007)
作者: Chou, W.C.
Wu, J.L.
Wang, Y.C.
Huang, H.
Sung, F.C.
Chuang, C.Y.
關鍵字: Diarrhea;Climate change;Poisson regression model;Morbidity;cholera epidemics;human health;time-series;children;temperature;outbreaks;rainfall;growth
Project: Science of the Total Environment
期刊/報告no:: Science of the Total Environment, Volume 409, Issue 1, Page(s) 43-51.
Diarrhea is an important public health problem in Taiwan Climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events (extreme heat drought or rainfalls) have been strongly linked to the incidence of diarrhea-associated disease This study investigated and quantified the relationship between climate variations and diarrhea-associated morbidity in subtropical Taiwan Specifically this study analyzed the local climatic variables and the number of diarrhea-associated infection cases from 1996 to 2007 This study applied a climate variation-guided Poisson regression model to predict the dynamics of diarrhea-associated morbidity The proposed model allows for climate factors (relative humidity maximum temperature and the numbers of extreme rainfall) autoregression long-term trends and seasonality and a lag-time effect Results indicated that the maximum temperature and extreme rainfall days were strongly related to diarrhea-associated morbidity The impact of maximum temperature on diarrhea-associated morbidity appeared primarily among children (0-14 years) and older adults (40-64 years) and had less of an effect on adults (15-39 years) Otherwise relative humidity and extreme rainfall days significantly contributed to the diarrhea-associated morbidity in adult This suggested that children and older adults were the most susceptible to diarrhea-associated morbidity caused by climatic variation Because climatic variation contributed to diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved
ISSN: 0048-9697
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.09.001
Appears in Collections:資訊網路與多媒體研究所

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