A double-threshold GARCH model of stock market and currency shocks on stock returns

Abstract

International integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency movements to affect stock prices. This paper applies a four-regime double-threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency movements on five stock market returns, namely in Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and the USA. The asymmetric reactions of the mean and volatility stock returns in five markets to stock market and foreign exchange news are investigated using linear and nonlinear models. We discuss a four-regime DTGARCH model, which allows for asymmetry in both the conditional mean and conditional variance simultaneously by using two threshold variables to analyze stock market reactions to different types of information (that is, positive and negative news) that are generated from stock and foreign exchange markets. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this paper finds that the interactions between the information of stock and foreign exchange markets lead to asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their associated variability. The empirical results show that international fund managers who invest in newly emerging stock markets need to evaluate the value and stability of domestic currencies as part of their stock market investment decisions. (C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.