The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade

Abstract

The agricultural value of Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge is measured in a value-of-information framework using economic models. We examine the value of considering the full distribution of ENSO phase strength effects as opposed to average ENSO phase strength effects, as well as the implications of considering ENSO impacts on the rest of the world (ROW). A stochastic U.S. agricultural sector model linked with a global trade model is used to assess the value of ENSO phase information. When the full distribution of ENSO phase strength is considered, the value of phase information increases twofold with respect to the average ENSO effects.