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標題: 台灣資通訊科技數位匯流發展預測與管理策略之研究-情境分析法與技術道路圖分析法之科技、市場、政策整合觀點
A Study of the Development Forecast and Managerial Strategies of Ict Digital Convergence -Scenario Analysis and Technology Roadmap Method from an Integrated Technology, Market, and Policy Perspective.
作者: 許志義
關鍵字: 基礎研究;Digital Convergence;管理科學;數位匯流;資通訊科技;能源資通訊科技;4C 產業;情境分析法;技術道路圖;科技預測;ICT;EICT;4C Industry;Scenario Analysis;Technology Roadmap;Technology Forecasting
本研究計畫旨在探討台灣數位匯流資通訊科技發展預測與管理策略,包括科技面、市場面與政策面之整合分析。具體言之,本研究之目的有以下數端:(1)探討資通訊科技數位匯流之演進與發展過程;(2)探討資通訊科技數位匯流4C 產業之現況;(3)資通訊科技數位匯流未來2020 年預測;(4)台灣在資通訊科技數位匯流潮流下科技面、市場面與政策面之發展策略。為達成以上目的,本研究首先將探討國內外相關文獻針對全球資通訊產業4C 產品功能之數位匯流趨勢,加以彙整,包括:數位服務的匯流、網路的匯流、終端平台的匯流、經營模式(Business Model)與產業之匯流。基於台灣目前在數位匯流發展上,相較於各主要發展國仍有改善空間,亟需掌握科技發展趨勢與市場契機,方可在這一波數位匯流浪潮中勝出。因此,本研究採用情境分析法(ScenarioAnalysis)以及技術道路圖分析法(technology roadmap),並召開專家會議,針對研究核心議題,尋求專家共識,以宏觀角度探討數位匯流的科技、市場、政策之發展預測與發展策略。分兩年進行,預期結果將針對各種不同類型關鍵技術群組、關鍵技術元件群組、與具潛力之殺手級產品,在考量最大市場效益、最低投資風險兩個軸面,以及考量發展科技其資源投入成本與效益,具有80/20 法則之特性下,政府政策面、市場面與科技面應考量之發展策略及其他相關配套措施。

The primary objective of this research proposal aims to explore the development forecast and managerialstrategies of digital convergence for ICT industry of Taiwan, especially from an integrated perspective oftechnology, market, and policy. To be more specific, the purposes of this research will include reviewing theevolution and development of digital convergence of ICT industry, examining the present situation of digitalconvergence of 4C industry, forecasting the development and formulating the management strategies of ICTindustry from the macroscopic perspective of technology, market and policy.To achieve all of the above, this study will first review the domestic and foreign literature of 4C industry.Then, we will investigate ICT digital convergence including the convergence of digital services, networks,platforms, and the business models of the 4C industry. As to the research methodology, we will adoptscenario analysis and technology roadmap method to explore the development forecasts. As a result,managerial strategies for the digital convergence will be drawn from an integrated perspective of technology,market, and policy. In the mean time, the experts meeting will also be held for seeking the consensus of this4C convergence issue.
其他識別: NSC98-2410-H005-007
Appears in Collections:資訊管理學系

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