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標題: 氣候變遷對台灣生態系之衝擊及脆弱度評估與因應策略(III)-氣候變遷對台灣地區農業衝擊之評析及因應策略研究
Evaluation of Impact of Climate Change to Agriculture of Taiwan and Response Statigies
作者: 申雍
關鍵字: 生物科學類, 其他(農);應用研究
全球氣候變遷將改變全球糧食產地和穩定性,為探討未來氣候環境對台灣地區農作生產之衝擊,並研擬相關因應措施,本子計畫於96 年度已應用歷史氣候觀測資料和統計降尺度技術模擬產生之未來區域氣候資料,結合作物生長電腦模擬模式(DSSAT),依據局地土壤特性與土地利用資料,評析台灣地區稻作生產受氣候變遷影響的脆弱程度。本年度將增加對飼料玉米和大豆兩種作物在未來氣候環境下產量之模擬,評估利用休耕稻田生產國內畜牧業飼料或生質能源的效益;並利用生物地球化學電腦模擬模式(DNDC)估算水稻、玉米、和大豆三種不同作物每年在不同區域氣候環境和土壤性質下的CO2、CH4 和N2O 的淨排放通量。所獲得之定量基礎數據,將分別由糧食供應、生質能源供應、和溫室氣體減量等不同角度進行考量,以評估調整現行栽培制度、栽培作物品種和類別等調適措施之效果,以供農業部門擬定整體因應策略。預期將有助於政府相關單位擬定氣候變遷因應之決策,減少氣候變遷衝擊所帶來的損失,可使我國農業生產和糧食供給面對未來氣候變遷環境有更大的調適能力。

Climate change will affect not only the crop production but also the supply stabilityglobally. The main goals of this subproject are to study the vulnerability of crop productionin Taiwan to climate change and to evaluate the effect of response strategies. Thevulnerability of rice production were evaluated, in last year, using simulated future climatesby statistical downscaling techniques, local soil properties, and a crop growth simulationmodel (DSSAT). In this year, the crop simulation will extend to maize and soybean cropswith the intention to evaluate the benefits of providing feed for animals and bio-fuels.Greenhouse gases emission from paddy rice, corn and soybean fields will also be evaluatedby a biogeochemical model (DNDC). Adaptation measures and response strategies will thenbe evaluated from the perspectives of food security, bio-fuel production, and greenhouse gasemission from farmland using those simulated quantitative data. It is expected that this studycan help governmental agencies in deciding the response strategies which can not onlyreduce the losses but also provide better adjustment and adaptation measures to surmount thedamages due to global climate change.
其他識別: NSC97-2625-M005-005
Appears in Collections:土壤環境科學系

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