Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/52918
標題: 氣候變遷對台灣地區衝擊與調適評析整合計畫-氣候變遷對台灣地區農業衝擊之評析及因應策略研究
Evaluation of Impact of Climate Change to Agriculture of Taiwan and Response Statigies
作者: 申雍
姚銘輝
關鍵字: 經濟學;基礎研究
摘要: 
全球氣候變遷將改變全球糧食產地和穩定性,為探討未來氣候環境對台灣地區農作生產之衝擊,並研擬相關因應措施,本子計畫將應用歷史氣候觀測資料和統計降尺度技術模擬之未來區域氣候資料,以及長期作物生產調查和統計資料,結合電腦模擬模式(如DSSAT、SDSM、DNDC),依據局地土壤特性與土地利用資料,評析台灣地區農業生產受氣候變遷影響的脆弱程度,並分別由糧食供應、生質能源供應、溫室氣體減量等不同角度評估調整現行栽培制度、以及栽培作物品種和類別等調適措施之效果,研究成果將提供總計劃進行經濟評估應用。這些模擬資料是進行糧食安全評估、土地利用及規劃等公共政策的基本資料,將有助於政府相關單位擬定氣候變遷因應之決策,減少氣候變遷衝擊所帶來的損失,可使我國農業生產和糧食供給面對未來氣候變遷環境有更大的調適能力。

Climate change will affect not only the crop production but also the supply stabilityglobally. The main goals of this subproject are to study the vulnerability of rice production inTaiwan to climate change and to evaluate the effect of response strategies. The study will beconducted using not only historical weather and crop data, but also through many computersimulation models, such as DSSAT, SDSM and DNDC, by considering factors such as localsoil properties, water supply by rainfall and irrigation, acreage of farmland affected by risingsea level, and extent and frequency of agrometeorological disasters. Adaptation measuressuch as adjustments on planting timing and rice variety, bio-fuel production, and greenhousegas emission from farmland will also be included. Those simulated data are the fundamentalbasis for evaluating the stability of food supply and making land use planning policies. It isexpected that this study can help governmental agencies in deciding the response strategieswhich can not only reduce the losses but also provide better adjustment and adaptationmeasures to surmount the damages due to global climate change.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/52918
其他識別: NSC96-2625-Z005-008
Appears in Collections:土壤環境科學系

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