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標題: 利用類神經網路預測台中都會區臭氧趨勢之研究
An Application of Artificial Neural Networks to the Predication of the Trend of Ozone Situations in Taichung City
作者: 黃宗仁
Huang, T.R.
關鍵字: Ozone;臭氧;Predication;Artificial neural network;Time series;Multiple Regression;預測;類神經網路;時間序列法;複迴歸分析法
出版社: 環境工程學系

This research used artificial neural networks (ANN) to develop a model to predict the trend of ozone situations in Taichung City. The optimal network was trained by using the monitoring data during the period from 1994 to 1999, and then the network is applied to predict the ozone situations of year 2000. Time Series and Multiple Regression were also used in this research, and their results were compared with ANN's.
The results showed that among these three methods, ANN appears to have the best performance. However, although ANN's short-term predictions are quite effective, its long-term predictions are still need to be improved in this research. On the other hand, Time Series can only predict the trend of ozone concentration, and its prediction of the critical values appears imprecise. For Multiple Regression Analysis, the predicted ozone concentrations were usually underestimated when they are above 60 ppb, but effective when under 60 ppb.
Appears in Collections:環境工程學系所

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