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Development of Risk Decision Model of Logistics Outsourcing
|作者:||蔡明志||關鍵字:||應用研究;logistics outsourcing;管理科學;物流委外;風險管理;零售產業;網路分析法;risk management;distribution industry;analyticalnetwork process||摘要:||
Logistics outsourcing has been an efficacious avenue for organizations to gainsustainable competitiveness. Evidently, logistics outsourcing is an emerging industryin many parts of the world, and the market continues growing. A forecast indicatedthat the logistics outsourcing market is expected to increase to more than US$276.5billion by 2007 worldwide. While organizations enjoy the benefits obtained fromlogistics outsourcing, the risk that accompanies is also important and should beequally noted. Although logistics outsourcing risk was often emphasized byorganizations, but research studies have been rarely seen. A comprehensive andlogical model for identifying, analysing, assessing and controlling logisticsoutsourcing risk is still lacking.As a result, the NSC research aims to construct a risk decision model for logisticsoutsourcing in the period of 3 years. Based mainly on qualitative risk assessment, themodel consists of three principal sequences for each execution year, including (1) firstyear: identification of logistics outsourcing risk; (2) second year: analysis of logisticsoutsourcing risk; and (3) third year: assessment and control of logistics outsourcingrisk.In the first year of risk identification, literatures on outsourcing risk were broadlyreviewed. Transaction cost theory (TCT) and resource-based view (RBV) would beused to construct a factor structure. Past outsourcing research has been guided largelyby the TCT, while the sound theoretical background of the TCT limits the scope ofrisk factors. Accordingly, incorporation of the RBV was suggested (e.g. Bouchaib andSuzanne, 2005; Chris Lonsdale, 1999). The TCT has focused on factors that affect afirm』s vulnerability to opportunistic behavio ur by their vendor (Williamson, 1975). Itposits that organizations do their sourcing decisions based on 「cost efficiency」 andbuilds upon three principal attributes of transactions: asset specificity, frequency, anduncertainty (Ngwenyama and Bryson, 1999; Williamson, 1979). In contrast, the RBVfocused on 「strategic resource」 and argues that firms can obtain returns if they canuse their existing resources to sustain competitive advantage by exploitingopportunities in the market (Barney, 1986, 1991). The axial coding and openingcoding methods were efficiently used for the integration of outsourcing theories toidentify logistics outsourcing risk factors. In empirical study, focus group meetingsand group decision process will be held to ensure comprehens ive and logical factoridentification. Confirmatory factor analysis will be applied to justify a statisticallysignificant risk factor structure. In the second year of risk analysis, the outsourcing risk is defined and measured asthe product of likelihood of the occurrence of unwanted events, i.e. logisticsperformance failure, resulting from the risk factors identified and their correspondingimpact degree. In the risk indictor, the occurrence of each failure is probabilisticallyexpressed, whereas the impact is qualitatively expressed and converted to weightsusing the analytical network process (ANP) with the operations of computer softwareSUPERDECISION. The ANP can more accurately portray the true linkages andinterdependencies among various determinants. As outsourcing risk varies withdegree of outsourcing activity, risks associated with varied outsourcing activity,largely classified into three levels from a narrow to a broad range of outsourcingactivities, are investigated. In empirical study, 150 retail chains from eight differentsectors in Taiwan have been chosen for survey, including department store,convenience store, hyper-market, 3C (Computer, Communication and ConsumerElectronics), apparel, automotive, drugstore, and furniture. The decision of chainsystem is to reflect the shifting channel power from manufacturers to retailers overtime. Respondents will be carefully selected as important decision-makers and surveywill be conducted using face-to- face interviews for study credibility. Thereby, theClustering analysis of Wards method will be used to compare the risk differencebetween the levels of outsourcing activities and variables of industry demographics.In the third year of risk assessment and control, Risk Triangle is set up. Importantrisk criteria, namely, risk intolerability level and negligence level, would beinvestigated to justify the following risk control decisions, mainly including riskavoidance, reduction, transferring, sharing and retention. Based on the study result ofpervious two years, survey will be designated to calibrate the industrial risk criteriaand to observe the industrial attitude towards outsourcing risk controls. MANOVAwill be carried out to analyze the risk control measures across different sectors ofdistribution industry. Besides, focus group meeting and group decision process will beplaced to examine the economics, i.e. cost effects, of risk measures and finalize therisk control solution.The result of research could inspire the research on logistics outsourcing risk. Inaddition, the empirical study could be used to understand the local industrialbehaviors towards logistics outsourcing risk. It can also be managerially applied fororganizations in assistance of their logistics outsourcing decision.
物流委外是現今企業經營上的重要商業策略，企業透過物流委外可有效結合相關活動，以創造價值，並且滿足顧客及社會的需求。物流委外在世界各地均呈現持續成長，委外市場將從2002 的15.58 億美元成長到2007 的27.65 億美元。儘管物流委外能提升企業優勢，惟物流委外亦會為企業帶來許多不可忽視的風險與不確定性。近來物流委外之風險管理體系已愈受企業重視，國際學術界對是項風險議題發展亦殷期關切；相對的，國內對物流委外風險議題近乎付之闕如，缺乏系統性的議題闡述與發展。有鑑於此，本國科會專題研究計畫之目的在於建構具結構與邏輯性之物流委外風險決策分析模型，並進行實証研究分析，依據量化風險評估(QRA)之程序邏輯，以三三階段的時程規劃，執行物流委外之風險決策理論發展與實證研究分析：重點議題分別於：(1)第一：確認物流委外風險因子結構；(2)第二：物流委外風險分析；及(3)第三，物流委外風險評估與風險控制。第一進行物流委外風險因子確認：首先對物流委外活動進行分類，定義類別變數，區分寬度與窄度物流委外幅度進行探討，再利用文獻歸納法，以開放式編碼(opening coding)與主軸式編碼(axial coding)的方式，歸納及演繹物流委外風險之因子結構，交易成本理論與資源基礎觀點將結構三項主要核心因子構面，包括「組織資產風險」、「關係管理風險」與「市場競爭」等，並以「物流績效風險」作為最終風險事件；在各大主軸之下，並制定次級風險因子，以解釋構面因子，在實證研究方面，研究設計焦點團體法，邀請流通產業相關物流決策人員，以確認文獻基礎所制定之因子的完整性與邏輯性，並進行初級產業調查，運用驗證性因子分析(Confirmatory factor analysis)，建立具有統計顯著性之委外風險因子分析架構。第二進行物流委外風險分析：首先以數量化概念定義物流委外風險，同時以質與量化數值，定義委外風險之兩大基本元素：包括委外風險衝擊與委外風險事件發生機率，其中質化之委外風險衝擊將以網路分析法(analytical network process，ANP)，透過電腦軟體SUPERDECISION，校估其相對重要性權重，最終以質化尺度表現委外風險。在實証研究方面，按所定義之物流委外活動分類，以連鎖加盟零售產業為調查對象，進行樣本資料蒐集，預計總樣本數約200 家，分別選自百貨、便利商店、量販店、3C（資訊、通訊與消費性電子產品）、傢俱、藥妝、服飾、汽車等八大零售業者，設定重要決策人員為訪談對象，採親自面訪方式調查。為檢定不同委外活動層級與不同產業屬性之風險認知差異，研究將設計群落分析(Clustering)，進行委外風險之分群分析。最後在第三的風險評估與控制決策，研究將引用風險三角形（Risk Triangle）概念，將風險分析結果，結合主觀的風險評估準則，判定委外風險評估層級與對應之風險控制策略，包括委外風險規避、降低、分攤、移轉與自承等五大項度。在實證研究方面，將以前期之風險分析結論為基礎，續以訪談問卷方式，調查流通業物流委外之主要風險評估準則與風險控制策略，並以多變異分析(MANOVA)檢定差異性，以反映流通產業之物流風險因應態度，同時並發展風險控制策略選擇模式，以個案方式，求解最佳之委外風險控制策略。本研究所發展之物流委外風險決策理論與分析架構，可提供國際是項議題之學術研究參考，實證研究結論可反映並回饋國內流通產業之委外風險認知與管理態度。
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