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標題: 鐵路預售票取消行為對盈收之影響及其改善策略
Impact of Reservation Cancellations on Railway Revenues and Its Improving Strategies
作者: 王建富
關鍵字: 應用研究;經濟學
Revenue management techniques have been proven beneficial for transportservice industries, especially for airline industries. In this project, inspired by thephenomenon of the large number of cancellations in the ticket reservation system ofTaiwan Railway Administration (TRA) (according to Chen (2006), 57% of internetand voice reservations are cancelled) ,we decide to figure out how big this behaviorwill impact TRA's operation and revenues using a mixture method of real data andsimulation models. Further, we will apply revenue management approaches to reducecancellation impacts and improve customers' satisfication.This project is scheduled to be finished in two years. During the first year, westart with the modeling of booking arrivals and the choosing behaviors of customersafter being rejected by the reservation system based on the data from TRA. Then wewill build a simulation model to calculate how much revenue is lost and how manycustomers are affected due to the high percentage of cancellation.During the second year, we plan to consider three strategies that are originatedfrom revenue management: cancellation charges, flexible booking limits and adjustedoverbooking mechanism. These strategies need to dynamically interact with the ticketreservation system to see their effects, so we will integrate them into our simulationmodel. Through this project, we hope to improve the efficiency of the ticketreservation system.

近來,有關盈收管理(revenue management)的技術已不斷精進並且實際地運用到運輸服務產業,特別是在航空業。本計畫團隊有感於陳淑珮君(2006)所指出有57%透過線上及語音訂票的台鐵旅客會在事後取消他們的訂票,所以決定深入去瞭解這麼大量的車票取消行為將會對台鐵的營運以及盈收產生何種程度的影響。我們預計運用台鐵訂票系統中的實際訂票資訊,結合具有動態模擬能力的電腦模擬模式來進行本計畫。此外,在建立了動態模擬模型後,我們也將運用營收管理技術中的幾項策略,來檢視其在降低取消行為衝擊以及改善顧客滿意度方面的效果。本計畫預定以兩的時間進行。在第ㄧ中,我們將首先利用台鐵的實際資料來模擬預訂車票顧客之到達模式,以及建立顧客訂不到票時的選擇行為模式。之後再建構電腦模擬模型來評估計算現有的預售票取消行為會導致多少盈收的損失,以及多少的顧客會受到影響而改搭其他班次甚至改搭別種交通工具。在第二中,我們準備參酌三種源於盈收管理技術的策略來改善前述影響及損失。這三類策略分別為:取消行為的收費、彈性的區段配票限制以及調整型的超額售票方式。由於這些策略都需要與售票系統做即時、動態的互動,所以也將結合前一階段建立的模擬模型來加以評估其效果。我們希望藉由本計畫的成果,能改善鐵路車票預售系統的效能。
其他識別: NSC99-2410-H005-046
Appears in Collections:行銷學系所

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