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標題: 氣候變遷及農業氣象災害發生潛勢評估與因應之研究
Evaluation of Agrometeorological Disaster Occurring Potential for Climate Change
作者: 申雍
關鍵字: 農業環境保護;應用研究;Disaster Potential;災害潛勢;風險評估;氣候變遷;排放情境;番荔枝;強風;Assessment;Climate Change;Emissions Scenarios;Sugar Apple;Gale
一.農業氣象災害潛勢分佈與應用本計劃為建置台灣地區農業氣象災害發生潛勢評估系統競爭型計劃之一部份,所負責之主要工作內容包括1.氣候資料庫建置,2.氣象災害發生機率模式建構,3.氣象災害發生潛勢圖之繪製,以及4.作物氣象災害受損率調查等項目,以便針對農作物可能遭遇之氣象災害的機率及受災後損失率進行風險估算,提供作為作物栽培管理、農業氣象災害風險評估、以及防護措施設置時的重要參考依據。本年度將進行北部地區(台北, 桃園, 新竹, 苗栗)氣候資料庫建置,氣象災害發生機率模式建構,氣象災害發生潛勢圖之繪製,以及作物氣象災害受損率調查等工作。預期將建立可查詢氣象資料及農業氣象災害之專屬資料庫及潛勢圖,另依據氣象資料規劃農作物適栽區之網目圖,提供適栽作物種類選擇及種植時期之建議,並建立資料庫供農民查詢使用。二.氣候變遷對台灣地區水稻生產影響情境模擬研究本研究利用統計降尺度技術模擬所得未來台灣地區降尺度的區域氣候資料,並結合作物生長模擬模式,以考量氣候暖化、農業氣象災害強度與發生頻率增加等因素對於台灣地區稻作生產的影響程度,並評估如栽培時序調整、水稻品種更換等調適措施的效果。本年度目標為應用降尺度技術模擬所得台灣各氣候區未來百年內之氣候演變,進行水稻生產影響情境模擬研究。重要工作項目包括1. 區域平年產量模擬,2. 災變性天氣發生頻率分析,3. 災變性天氣對稻作產量影響模擬。研究成果將有助於政府相關單位擬定氣候變遷因應之決策,減少氣候變遷衝擊所帶來的損失,可使我國農業生產和糧食供給面對未來氣候變遷環境有更大的調適能力。三. 台東地區番荔枝強風防護措施研究本研究預期將可開發番荔枝強風的防護技術,減輕落果及破損對番荔枝品質的影響,提高農民之收益。本年度工作目標以確認強風發生時期與為害程度調查,進而比較相關防護措施,並選定為示範試驗地點,初步進行園區內果園微氣象環境測定及風場調查,以尋求強風防護措施,來減低番荔枝果農因強風所造成的損失。

一.農業氣象災害潛勢分佈與應用This project is part of an integrated competition project to develop an evaluation systemfor agricultural disaster occurring potential in Taiwan. The major work to be executedin this project is as follows. 1. Build up of a climatological database, 2. Computeoccurring probability of agrometeorological disasters, 3. Produce potential maps ofagrometeorological disasters, and 4. Conduct survey on agrometeorological disasters.The system will not only provide risk analysis based on climatic record, but can alsosuggest the best management practices to assist farmers protecting theagrometeorological disasters and reduce their economical losses. This year's work willmainly focus on northern region of Taiwan. It is expected that climatologigacaldatabase, disaster potential maps will be produced to provide information for crop selection and other inquires from local farmers.二.氣候變遷對台灣地區水稻生產影響情境模擬研究In this study, statistical downscaling techniques will be used to simulate regional climatechage as affected by global climate change. Simulated climatic data will be used inconjunction with a crop growth model to study the effect of climate change on riceproduction in Taiwan and to evaluate the effect of those response strategies. Effects oftemperature and CO2 rise, and extent and frequency of agrometeorological disasters willbe included in the simulation. Adaptation measures such as adjustments on plantingtiming and rice variety will also be included. Major work in this year include 1. Rice yield simulation in averaged years, 2. Disaster weather analysis, 3. Rice yield simulation in case of disaster occurred. Those simulated data are the fundamental basis for evaluating the stability of food supply and making land use planning policies. It is expected that this study can help governmental agencies in deciding the response strategies which can not only reduce the losses but also provide better adjustment and adaptation measures to surmount the damages due to global climate change.三. 台東地區番荔枝強風防護措施研究This study was mainly progress in gale mitigation technique to decrease the fruitage fallen and surface friction of sugar apples, and then could both be increase quality of sugar apples and income of farmers can both be increased. The major goals of this year's project are to confirm the damage period and extent of gale damage the sugar apples, investigation to compare the variety of gale mitigation. Then the plot will be created to observe micrometeorological environment and air-current distribution. The results of the study are expected that techniques to mitigate gale will be developed. Quality of sugar apples and income of farmers can both be increased.
其他識別: 96農科-10.2.1-糧-Z1
Appears in Collections:土壤環境科學系

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