Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53807
標題: 金融業財務績效、盈餘與財測品質間關係之研究
The Interaction among Finance Performance, Quality of Earnings and Earning Forecast
作者: 陳育成
關鍵字: 應用研究;經濟學
摘要: 
本計畫分為兩大部分,第一部份將探討市場財務預測與管理當局財務預測間可能存在的相互競逐關係,第二部分是基於第一部份的結果,以金融產業為探討主體,檢測財務績效、盈餘品質與財測間互動的模式與規則。管理當局提供預測資訊的目的,可能是作為分析師預測盈餘的指引(earningsguidance),例如管理當局試圖引導分析師對公司發布較樂觀的預期,此將有利於公司正面聲譽形象之塑造(Matsumoto, 2002)。或者作為盈餘管理(earnings management)的配合動作、或資訊流動改善(information flow improvements)之工具(Degeorge, Patel, &Zeckhauser,1999; Matsumoto, 2002;Asthana, 2003)。分析師為了專業聲譽的建立與其他誘因,在資訊不對稱的限制下,是否有能力辨別管理當局財務預測的真正企圖,是否能不受雜訊干擾而發布準確性高之預測資訊,亦或受短期績效壓力而依靠管理當局的引導,以致發布非獨立性盈餘預測。歷來文獻已有相關的探討,但仍未有全面性的檢測,本研究認為此兩種資訊間應存在相互競逐之交互作用關係,亦即管理當局的預測在特定情況下會引導分析師的預測行為,而分析師的預測在特定的情況下亦會引導管理當局的預測。金融產業在資本市場上一直扮演火車頭的角色,世界貿易組織(World TradeOrganization)等金融自由化之風潮下,日本於1977 年展開大規模的金融改革再造運動,美國於1999 年通過金融服務業現代化法( Financial Service Modernization Act;Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act)及相關法案,而我國立法院亦於2001 年三讀通過「金融控股公司法」及相關法案,為提昇競爭力並抗拒跨國金融集團強敵壓境的威脅,各國金融業掀起了一波整合購併旋風,原高度管制之金融產業已獲得鬆綁。本計畫將探討整體金融環境之轉變下,由於金融控股公司之商品組合趨向複雜化,相關的財務預測困難度提高,金控業的盈餘與資訊品質可能因而變得更好或因此而變得更差,因此針對金融產業財務績效、盈餘品質與預測品質三者間,探究其互動關係。本計畫對於利用分析師報導作為資訊傳遞媒介之管理當局、使用分析師報導進行投資決策的投資人,以及主管機關基於推動外部監督力量之資訊中介產業等政策推動,均具有重要的參考價值,並有助於金融業之管制政策修訂與落實執行。

This study tries to identify in which conditions the management will follow and react theanalysts' forecast, and in which conditions analysts will follow and react the managementforecast.From this study, we can identify the effect of information competition. Identifying theirrelationship is also helpful to alleviate the disagreement of current literature. Based on thebroad data and explore deliberately, we can found the theory.Under the trend of internationalization and deregulation, commercial banks in manycountries face intensive competition from not only domestic competitors, but also banksaround the world. The U.S. government has passed Financial Service Modernization Act(Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act) that permits U.S. banks to provide various types of financialservices since 1999. Both Japan and Taiwan have the similar deregulation trend during thelast few years of 20th century.The trend of financial holding company makes financial commodities complexly. It isimportant for both the insider managers and outsider analysts of a firm to make proper policyof financial forecast. Furthermore, the quality of earnings and the quality of analysts' forecastwill increase or decrease under this kind of information environment.From this study, we can compare the difference of earnings quality and the quality ofanalysts' forecast among different groups of the company performance in financial industryenvironment.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53807
其他識別: NSC97-2410-H005-016
Appears in Collections:財務金融學系所

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