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標題: 氣候變遷趨勢下國人對核能的態度及願付價值分析---考量多重外部性
Analysis of the Attitude toward Nuclear Energy and Willingness to Pay under Climate Changes Trend-Multiple Externalities Considered
作者: 曾偉君
關鍵字: 應用研究;Greenhouse Gas;經濟學;溫室氣體;願付價值;核廢;能源安全;核災;核武;外部性;Willingness to pay;Nuclear waste;Energy Security;Nuclear accidents;Nuke;Externalities
1986 年車諾比事件讓第一波核能熱中止。經過20 多年沉寂, 近年卻有復興現象, 而最主要的因素就是全球暖化以及油價上揚。核電是重要能源,廉價,穩定, 乾淨(低碳排放),卻危險(核廢風險,核災風險),在國情特殊的台灣,核能還有國家安全上的雙重意義: 能源安全,及核武潛力。我國目前核能發電占總發電比重為20%左右, 未來我國整體能源政策是否會更倚重核能? 基於有關核能的決策須注重之民眾偏好, 同時, 考量外部性是必要的(Itaoka, 2006)。因此探究國人對核能的態度並估計其願付價值即為本研究計畫之目的,俾以為我國研擬核能政策及溫室氣體減量政策參考。本計畫擬採用條件評估法(CVM) 並採用封閉式雙界二元模型及Heterogeneous Probit Model (Scrogin, 2005)來估計,後者特別適合分析核能的核武潛力如何影響國人對核能的態度, 因為對不同的民眾而言,它可能是正外部性或負外部性,亦即具有偏好異質性。Itaoka et al. (2006)是與核能發電密切相關的僅有的願付價值學術研究, 強調降低死亡風險的願付價值; 本研究則探討是否更倚重核能的願付價值, 而且包括各種外部性。因此本計劃在學術主題, 能源政策, 及國家安全研究上, 將有所貢獻。

Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe (1986) terminated the first wave of nuclear energy heat.Through more than 20 years being quiet, there is phenomenon of rejuvenating in recent years.The main factors are global warming and the raising up of oil price. The nuclear power is animportant energy that is cheap, steady, and clean (low discharge of carbon), but it isdangerous (the nuclear waste and accident risks). In Taiwan with special national conditions,the nuclear energy has double meaning on national security: The energy security and themilitary potentiality of nuke. The nuclear energy generates electricity and accounts for about20% among all electricity powers at present in our country. Will the energy policy of ourcountry rely on the nuclear energy even more in the future? This decision must take people'spreferences into account. Meanwhile, it is essential to consider the externalities (Itaoka, 2006).Therefore, investigate people's attitude toward nuclear energy and estimate their willingnessto pay becomes the purpose of this project. The results can be consulted when energy policyand greenhouse gas decrement policy of our country is drafted. This projects plans to adoptthe contingent valuation method (CVM), double-bound model, and heterogeneous Probitmodel (Scrogin, 2005) to estimate. The heterogeneous Probit model is especially suitable toaddress the facts that different people may have positive or negative willingness to pay for thenuke potential associated with the nuclear power. In other words, there is preferenceheterogeneity among people. Itaoka et al. (2006) is the only literature closely related to thewillingness to pay of nuclear power, which puts emphasis on the willingness to pay ofreducing the mortality risk; this research emphasis on the willingness to pay for relying moreheavily on the nuclear power and multiple externalities included. Thus this project will havecontribution to some extent in the academic theme, energy policy, and on national securitystudies.
其他識別: NSC97-2410-H005-003-SSS
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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