Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53904
標題: 種植能源作物對台灣農業、能源、環境及經濟可能造成之影響
Potential Implications of Energy Crops Production in Taiwan: an Integrated Agricultural-Energy-Environmental-Economic Analysis
作者: 廖述誼
陳吉仲
關鍵字: 應用研究;energy crop;經濟學;能源作物;整合性評估模型;動態可計算一般均衡模型;農業部門空間均衡模型;土地使用地理資系統;溫室氣體;integrated assessment model;dynamic computational general equilibrium model;agriculture sector model;land use geographic information system;greenhouse gas
摘要: 
在全球溫室氣體排放減量壓力逐步升高及原油價格不斷創下歷史新高的雙重作用下,近幾年來歐美先進國家逐漸開始大量生產能源作物,希望能藉由生質燃料的普遍使用,來替代傳統石化燃料,以減輕對進口原油的依賴渡及減少溫室氣體的排放。然而,對於能源資源缺乏及土地資源有限的國家而言,大量種植能源作物的整體經濟效益如何?是否會對現有農作物生產及價格造成排擠效果?是否會對土地利用及價格產生顯著之影響?是否能顯著提升農民收入?是否能逐漸減輕對進口原油的依賴度及減少溫室氣體的排放量?為了回答上述問題,本研究計畫擬構建一個動態農業-能源-環境-經濟整合性模型(integrated agricultural-energy-environmental-economic model, IAEEE),來分析種植能源作物對台灣農業、能源、環境及經濟可能造成之影響。預期IAEEE模型的建立與模擬分析將可協助政府相關單位(1)制訂未來與能源作物相關之農業及能源政策;(2)推估種植能源作物對土地利用及價格的影響及可能帶來的溫室氣體排放減量效果;(3)評估種植能源作物對相關產業產出及農民所可能造成的影響。此外,本研究計畫主要的學術貢獻為在動態一般均衡理論基礎下,以地理資訊系統為介面,提供一個整合農業、能源、環境、及經濟的模型架構及應用實例。

Recent rapid growing demand in Europe and North America for biofuels from energy crops is one of the responses to stringent environmental policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sustained high oil prices. However, for countries with scarce fossil fuel resources and limited crop land, how would energy crops production increase energy security and reduce GHG emissions? How would energy crops production affect land use and cover, food and land prices, and farmer income? To address such questions, we propose to develop a new integrated assessment model to simulate the dynamics of land use changes and economic impacts of energy crop policy in Taiwan. The model is a dynamic combination of submodels linked together interactively and dynamically, representing different components of the integrated agricultural-energy-environmental-economic (IAEEE) system. Our goal is to make the IAEEE assessment model a full integration of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the economy with detail agriculture production, energy input, and land use modeling components to analyze the underlying dynamics of economic and land use and cover changes over time in relation to energy crop production. The results from the integrated AEEE assessment analysis are expected to be multifaceted, including (1) provide a tool for developing agriculture and energy outlook for the decision-maker; (2) estimate trends in GHG emission reduction and changes in land use and cover; (3) assess the impacts of energy crop production on various economic sectors, especially on agriculture and energy, and farmer income. This project will have a long list of potential beneficiaries, including decision-makers at different levels, scientists, economists, students, and the public at large. Our IAEEE will provide several important contributions to the field of modeling human, socioeconomic, and environment aspects of bioenergy systems, including (1) methodological breakthroughs for integrated regional modeling; (2) dynamic CGE modeling coupled with spatial and temporal change simulation; (3) value added to regional assessments by moving from linked linear chains of analysis to integrated systems modeling; (4) value added to Taiwan's biofuels-related studies by bringing existing research together in an integrated regional framework.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53904
其他識別: NSC97-2410-H005-009
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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