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標題: 兩大候鳥遷徙路徑與禽流感人類病例死亡機率---全球資料及二分選擇模型之應用
The Avian Influenza Human Cases Death Probabilities in Major Flyways of Migratory Birds-Evidence from Global Data and Binary Choice Models
作者: 曾偉君
關鍵字: 應用研究;H5N1 subtype;經濟學;H5N1 亞型;人類病例致死率;氣候;濕地;感染源;Probit;Logit;Weibull;case-fatality rate of human case;Climate;Wetland;source ofinfection;Probit;Logit;Weibull
禽流感病毒一旦可輕易人傳人,可能造成數千萬人死亡之流感大流行。致死率是直接決定人命損失及社會經濟衝擊最關鍵因素之一,進而會影響人們在大流行預防計劃中,投入多少資源。然而,大流行病毒之真正致死率目前是無從預知的,僅能不斷地追蹤最新資料並作最佳之估計。全球八大候鳥遷徙路徑之兩條,各自通過H5N1禽流感人類病例之舊熱區(東南亞及中國)及新熱區(北非中東),且交會於最早有疫情的中國,並涵括全球人類病例之99.74%。此外,候鳥將病毒傳給家禽,家禽再傳給人,但在WHO資料會顯示病患先前接觸家禽。故候鳥角色可能遠比目前一般所認知的大。由於致死機率無法做人體實驗得知,因此本研究擬使用全球資料以及Probit,Logit,及Weibull等二分選擇計量模型,檢測估計具有政策意義的爭辯中的重要相關議題及參數,或發掘新證據。包括: 一.不同的遷徙路徑上,人類確認病例致死機率之差異; 二.有禽鳥接觸史和無禽鳥接觸史之人類病例,其死亡機率之差異; 三.在初具人傳人能力之後,病毒對人類病例之致死機率有無下降; 四.候鳥南下季節人類病例致死機率是否較高?五.致死機率和所得水準之關係。可望經由與文獻不同的研究方法及全球資料,在排除其它重要因素干擾下,提供關於致死機率的估計。

The Avian influenza virus can easily cause several ten million deaths once it becomeseasily to transmit among people. The case-fatality rate is one of the most key factors thatdetermines directly human life losses and social economy impacts, and then will influencehow much resources are put into the prevention plans. However, since there is no way toknow the case-fatality rate of the pandemic virus in advance, people can only follow the trailof the latest materials and do the best estimation constantly .Two of the eight global major migratory flyways, each pass the H5N1 human case oldhot zone (Southeast Asia and China) and the new hot zone (the Middle East and NorthAfrican). They intersect in China and include 99.74% of the global H5N1 human cases. Inaddition, the migratory bird passes virus to the poultry, and the poultry spreads to somebodyagain, but the WHO record will show that the patient contacts the poultry previously.Therefore, the role of migratory birds may be far bigger than generally believed.Death probability is unable to be learned by conducting human experiments. Thus thisresearch plans to use global data, and binary choice models such as Probit, Logit, and Weibullmodels to measure and estimates important relevant topics and parameters that are with policyimplications, or to explore new evidences. The purposes includes: First, Estimating thedifference of human case death probabilities of different migration routes; Second, Estimatingthe difference of human case death probabilities of those human cases who has exposurehistory to birds and those who hasn't; Third, Testing whether or not the human deathprobability decreases after the virus has the preliminary human-to human infection capability.Fourth, Testing whether or not the human death probability increases when the wild birdsmigrating south. Finally, Estimating the impacts of income to the human death probability.This research uses global data and methods that were not used before. Meanwhile, thesemethods are capable to exclude noises from other variables. Thus we will be confident on theestimates in regarding the human case death probability.
其他識別: NSC98-2410-H005-018
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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