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標題: 綠色造林對台灣土地利用、農業、能源、環境及經濟之影響分析
Assessment of Afforestation Policy in Taiwan-An Integrated Land-Agriculture-Energy-Environment-Economics Approach
作者: 廖述誼
關鍵字: 應用研究;afforestation;經濟學;綠色造林;土地使用;整合性評估模型;動態可計算一般均衡模型;農業部門空間均衡模型;地理資訊系統;溫室氣體;land use;integrated assessment model;dynamic computational general equilibrium model;agriculture sector model;geographic information system;greenhouse gas
在「溫室效應」隨大氣中二氧化碳(CO2)濃度逐年上升而增強的壓力下,如何降低CO2濃度以減緩溫室效應所帶來的負面衝擊,已成為世界各國所共同關注的議題與努力的目標。有鑑於近年來歐美先進國家已開始積極獎勵綠色造林,以增進林木吸收CO2之作用,我國政府亦於「愛台12建設」中提出「綠色造林」計畫,一起為減緩大氣中CO2濃度上升趨勢之目標而努力。然而,對於土地資源有限的台灣而言,進行大規模綠色造林的整體經濟效益如何?是否會對現有農作物生產及價格造成排擠效果?是否會對土地利用及價格產生顯著之影響?是否能顯著提升農民收入?為了回答上述問題,本研究計畫擬進一步擴增我們已建構完成之農業-能源-環境-經濟模型(integrated agricultural-energy-environmental-economic model, IAEEE;97年度國科會補助計畫-97-2410-H-005-009),成為一更趨完整性之土地-農業-能源-環境-經濟整合性模型(IAEEE-LAND),來分析綠色造林對台灣土地利用、農業、能源、環境及經濟可能造成之影響。預期IAEEE-LAND模型之建立與模擬分析將可協助政府相關單位(1)制訂及修訂未來與綠色造林相關之農業土地利用獎勵政策;(2)推估綠色造林對土地利用、土地生產力及農產品價格之影響及可能帶來之溫室氣體排放減量效果;(3)評估綠色造林對相關產業產出及農民所得可能造成之影響。此外,本研究計畫主要的學術貢獻為在動態一般均衡理論基礎下,結合土地利用及農業部門模型,以地理資訊系統為介面,提供一個整合土地利用、農業、能源、環境、及經濟的模型架構及應用實例。

Recent growing afforetation in Europe and North America is one of the land-based responses to reduce GHG emissions. Afforestation can lessen the negative impacts of global climate change, improve farm land use efficiency, and increase farmer income. Therefore, afforestation policy has become one of the most important GHG emission reduction measures in Taiwan. However, for small countries with limited crop land, how would afforestation increase the effect of carbon sequestration? How would afforestation affect land use and cover, land price, agriculture output and price, and farmer income? To address theses questions, we propose to extend our current integrated agricultural-energy-environmental-economic (IAEEE) model (funded by National Science Council-97-2410-H-005-009) to a coupling of IAEEE and Land Use (IAEEE-LAND) model. Our goal is to make IAEEE-LAND model a full integration of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the economy with detail agriculture production, land use, and land productivity modeling components to analyze the underlying dynamics of economic and land use changes over time in relation to afforestation policy.Our new extended IAEEE-LAND model differs from the IAEEE model in three ways. First, the land allocation is endogenously determined instead of exogenously given in the IAEEE model. We directly use the crop price changes determined in the agriculture sector model and land use model. This insures a strong economic background of the land allocation in IAEEE-LAND model. Second, we introduce heterogeneous land endowments. There are five agricultural land-use types in IAEEE-LAND model, which include rice patty filed, other cereal cropland, other cropland, afforestation plantation land, and set-aside cropland. Furthermore, each type of land is characterized by four different productivities. This enables a more explicit representation of land use changes in IAEEE-LAND model. Finally, we model land competition directly into land supply through a two-tiered structure, where afforestation activity compete with non-afforestation activities for set-aside cropland, set-aside land as a whole compete with other land-use types within a given county area. This enables us to distinguish land use change within and across sectors, and across counties.The results from our IAEEE-LAND assessment analysis are expected to be multifaceted, including (1) provide a tool for developing agriculture land-use outlook for the decision-maker; (2) estimate trends in CO2 emission reduction and changes in land use and productivity; (3) assess the impacts of afforestation plantation on various economic sectors, especially on agriculture and farmer income. Our IAEEE-LAND will provide several important contributions to the field of modeling land-socioeconomic-environment aspects of afforestation policy, including (1) methodological breakthroughs for integrated county-level modeling; (2) dynamic CGE modeling coupled with spatial and temporal land-use change simulation; (3) value added to regional assessments by moving from linked linear chains of analysis to integrated systems modeling; (4) value added to Taiwan's afforestation-related studies by bringing existing research together in an integrated framework.
其他識別: NSC98-2410-H005-041
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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