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標題: 評估氣候變遷與經濟條件對死亡率之影響---以OECD國家為例
Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change and Economic Conditions on Mortality in OECD Countries
作者: 陳吉仲
關鍵字: 經濟學;應用研究
由國外的文獻發現影響死亡率的文獻可分成兩部份,第一部份是研究總體經濟變數如國民所得和失業率對死亡率的影響,另一部份是分析氣候氣件如溫度及其變異和雨量對死亡率的影響。然而實際影響死亡率的因素應同時包含總體經濟變數和氣候條件,否則將造成偏誤(Biased)的估計結果。因此本研究之主要研究目的在於估計總體經濟變數和氣候條件對死亡率之影響,並以OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment)中22 國家的首都為研究對象。之所以選擇這22 個國家的首都之主要理由在於近年來熱浪事件在歐洲發生頻率漸增,且造成死人數的增加,另一方面則是以首都城市較能代表一個國家的經濟發展程度,且在氣候條件的資料蒐集及代表性較容易達成。透過國外相關文獻的整理可設定出這22 個國家首都的死亡率之函數,並利用PanelModel 的估計方法來估計出經濟條件和氣候條件對死亡率的影響,再結合未來氣候變遷的情境將可推導出氣候變遷下的死亡率之影響。

The main purpose of this study is to estimate the impacts of climate and economyconditions on mortality using 22 capital cities in OECD (Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development) countries as example. Based on the literature review,empirical studies related with mortality have been developed either from pure economicconditions such as GDP and unemployment or from climate conditions such as temperatureand its variation. However, such studies may result in biased or inconsistent estimatedoutcomes if both of economy conditions and climate conditions are not taken intoconsideration simultaneously. To do this end, the mortality function will be built based onthe literature reviews and both the economic and climate conditions will be taken intoconsideration. Later, data sets including mortality, GDP, unemployment rate, temperature andits variation, and precipitation will be collected while the fixed effects and random effectsestimation approach in a panel model will be implemented. The estimation outcome with thecombination of future climate change scenarios could derive the effects of climate change onmortality.
其他識別: NSC99-2410-H005-010
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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