Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53920
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dc.contributor.author陳吉仲zh_TW
dc.contributor.other行政院國家科學委員會zh_TW
dc.contributor.other國立中興大學應用經濟學系(所)zh_TW
dc.date2012zh_TW
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-06T08:59:36Z-
dc.date.available2014-06-06T08:59:36Z-
dc.identifierNSC100-2410-H005-020-MY2zh_TW
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11455/53920-
dc.description.abstract本研究主要研究目的有三大重點,第一是估計全球的氣候條件之機率分配,此全球的氣候條件包括溫度、雨量及乾旱指數,除估計這些氣候條件的機率分配外,並估計其波動,因為波動的改變之影響比平均的改變之影響還嚴重。第是估計亞洲地區的氣候變遷對稻米生產的影響,尤其是乾旱指數( PDSI)對稻米生產的影響,將上述乾旱指數對亞洲地區的稻米生產影響納入全球的稻米貿易模型,可評估其對全球稻米市場的影響。第三則是估計影響全球糧食安全的氣候條件門檻值和全球各國主要城市死亡率的氣候條件門檻值,本研究的糧食是定義包括稻米、小麥與玉米等三種全球主要糧食。為達成此三項目的,本研究的方法包括使用估計氣候條件機率分配及其條件波動之模型、糧食生產函數模型、全球糧食貿易市場模型、作物生長模型及縱橫資料門檻模型等計量和數學規劃模型。因此本研究預計獲得成果包括估計未來氣候變遷下對全球氣候條件分配之影響、估計因氣候變遷所導致的乾旱對亞洲地區的稻米生產之影響,及其對全球稻米市場之影響、評估氣候變遷對氣候條件波動之影響、估計影響全球各國主要城市死亡率之氣候條件門檻、及估計影響全球糧食安全的氣候條件之門檻。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractThree research purposes of this study will be achieved. The first goal is to estimate theeffects of climate change on the distributions of global climate conditions includingtemperature, precipitation, and Palmer Drought Index (PDSI). The estimations of thevolatility in these climate conditions are analyzed. The second goal is to estimate the effectsof PDSI on rice yield in Asia and then incorporate these effects into a global rice trade modelin order to estimate the potential economics impacts in the international rice markets. Thethird goal is to estimate the thresholds of climate conditions on global food security andmortality rates in major cities of developed and developing countries. To do this end, boththe econometric models and mathematical programming models will be built and adopted.The econometric models include volatility models, rice yield stochastic production function,and panel threshold error correction model while global rice trade model and crop simulationmodels are included in the mathematical programming model. The possible outcomesincluding the estimation of climate change on the shift of distributions of climate conditiondue to climate change, the volatility estimation of climate conditions due to climate change,the effects of PDSI on rice yield in Asia and the economic impacts of such effects on theworld rice market, and the thresholds of climate conditions on global food security andmortality rates will be obtained.en_US
dc.language.isozh_TWzh_TW
dc.relation.urihttp://grbsearch.stpi.narl.org.tw/GRB/result.jsp?id=2315649&plan_no=NSC100-2410-H005-020-MY2&plan_year=100&projkey=PF10006-1036&target=plan&highStr=*&check=0&pnchDesc=%E4%BC%B0%E8%A8%88%E6%B0%A3%E5%80%99%E8%AE%8A%E9%81%B7%E5%B0%8D%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%B0%A3%E5%80%99%E6%A2%9D%E4%BB%B6%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D%E4%B9%8B%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E5%B0%8D%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%B3%A7%E9%A3%9F%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%92%8C%E6%AD%BB%E4%BA%A1%E7%8E%87%E4%B9%8B%E9%96%80%E6%AA%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90en_US
dc.subject經濟學zh_TW
dc.subject應用研究zh_TW
dc.title估計氣候變遷對全球氣候條件分配之影響及其對全球糧食市場和死亡率之門檻分析zh_TW
dc.titleEstimating the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Climate Conditions and the Threshold Estimations of Climate Change on Global Food Markets and Mortality Ratesen_US
dc.typeResearch Reportszh_TW
item.fulltextno fulltext-
item.languageiso639-1zh_TW-
item.openairetypeResearch Reports-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.grantfulltextnone-
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