Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53978
標題: 我國糧食需求預測及糧食安全管理機制之研究
A Study on Food Demand Projections and Management Mechanism of Food Security in Taiwan
作者: 李朝賢
萬鍾汶
關鍵字: 農業經濟類;應用研究
摘要: 
維護國內糧食安全向來為我國農業政策的重點, 研究糧食安全的議題必須考慮到糧食的供給( 包括生產、進出口及庫存 )、糧食的需求( 包括糧食的分配 )、食品的安全與營養以及環境與生態的維護等四大議題.基本上, 在分析台灣的糧食安全問題時應分成平常時期及非常時期來探討, 在平常時期所考慮的是在台灣加入WTO與海峽兩岸三通後可能引起台灣糧食安全問題.而在非常時期所需考慮的是在台海情勢危急時, 以及世界糧食發生危機所產生糧食供需不穩定時, 尤其是全球糧食不足以應付全球需求時, 台灣如何以自己本身的糧食自恃能力來提供足夠的糧食需求.因此, 本研究之分析重點將考慮在平常與非常時期下, 如何( 1 )有效預測糧食需求的趨勢; ( 2 )建立我國糧食安全指標及其適當水準; ( 3 )確保國內糧食生產水準及農地資源之維護水準; 以及( 4 )規劃糧食安全管理機制.

One of the main purpose of agricultural policy in Taiwan is to maintain the food security.It is better to consider the aspects of the food supply including production, import and storage, food demand, and food safety as well as related with environment and ecological system when the food security issues are studied.Basically, the analysis of food security in Taiwan includes both the regular and emergency seasons.The economic relationship between Taiwan and foreign countries is closed after joining WTO and such situation will be considered as the regular season in this study.For instance, food price variation due to the shift in the demand and supply of the rest of the world is an important issue related with Taiwan food security.On other hand, the political or military conflict situation between Taiwan Strait and world food crisis are considered as the emergency season.The key point in this emergence for Taiwan food security is to supply enough food to meet the demand according to Taiwan own food reliance.Therefore, the purposes of this study include ( 1 )Effective predicting the trend of food demand, ( 2 )Establishing the index of food security, ( 3 )Maintaining the minimum level of domestic food production as well as farmland, and ( 4 )Designing the management mechanism for food security.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/53978
其他識別: 90農科-1.6.1-企-Q1(1)
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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