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標題: 高科技產業技術規畫之穩健決策模式研究(I)
A Robust Decision Methodology for Technology Planning in High-Tech Industries(I)
作者: 王瑞德
關鍵字: 應用研究;Technology planning;工業工程類;技術規畫;實質選擇權;多準則決策;多準則群組決策;linguistic決策分析;生物晶片;multiple criteria decision making;group decision making;real options;linguistic decision analysis;biochip
技術是高科技產業為了能維持成長和保持競爭優勢的重要資產。基本上,技術代表建構公司未來產品和其製程的框架。清楚地瞭解有什麼新興技術與如何選擇與運用技術以提升產品與服務的競爭力,對高科技公司來說是非常重要的。然而,由於越趨複雜的技術、可供選擇的技術增加、更高的技術發展費用與分散的全球化技術來源,讓高科技產業管理其技術資產變得更加困難。雖然文獻與實務上已有方法論可用來進行技術規畫,但仍然缺乏有效的工具來確認、評估、選擇、並充分利用新興技術。本研究宗旨在發展以實質選擇權為基礎的穩健決策方法協助決策者評估和選擇適當的技術以最大化學習與成長機會,並最小化成本與負面發展的風險。本研究計劃為3年期計畫(2010 年8 月- 2013 7 月),由於所有預測都可能會失誤,另外,建構彈性在技術規劃裡通常會增加成本,因此我們需要探討不同形式的彈性價值和進行改進利益和增加成本之間的權衡分析,因此創造彈性和運用實質選擇權來分析彈性的價值對技術規劃來說就顯得非常重要。第一年期計畫將開發一個實質選擇權模型,以在不確定性之環境下建構有彈性的技術規畫、分析彈性的價值並決定適當技術商品化的時間。由於實質選擇權分析的主要缺點是難以獲得所需要的準確數據,第二年期計畫將開發以實質選擇權邏輯為基礎的多準則決策(MCDM)架構以評估技術和選擇考慮彈性價值的適當技術。另外,有些準則是定性的本質,而且準確定量資料在早期技術計劃階段不易獲得,本研究將使用linguistic 決策分析以建立技術評估模型。由於實務上經常是多個利害關係人(stakeholders)參與技術計劃過程,第三學年期計畫將延伸第二年期計畫成果開發多準則群組決策 (MCGDM) 架構以評估和選擇適當的技術。本研究將開發群組共識(consensus)決策流程和使用linguistic 決策分析來建構MCGDM 模式與共識模型以協助決策者選擇符合共識且最大化潛在商業價值的新興技術。本研究的可能貢獻有四。 首先,本研究所提定量與定性穩健決策方法可協助決策者在高度不確定性下評估和選擇適當的技術以最大化成長機會與最小化風險。第二,提出的新的實質選擇權模型將解決前人研究限制,考慮各種類型的R&D 選擇權和新興技術的市場不確定性以評估新興技術的研發彈性價值。另外,所提出的實質選擇權模型將允許決策者決定適當的技術商品化時間和市場進入策略。第三,所提出的兩個MCDM 和MCGDM 模型提供新的定性實質選擇權方法可適用在定量資訊不足或不可靠的情況來評選新興技術。最後,研究成果將可協助生物晶片產業以研發彈性的觀點管理他們的技術規畫以防範高度不確定的風險。

Technology is an important asset for many firms to sustain growth and remain competitive advantage.Basically, technology represents the framework that underpins company's future products and manufacturingprocesses that support these products. It is very important for companies to clearly understand whattechnologies are available to them and how to select and exploit appropriate technologies for providing theirproducts or services with a competitive edge. However, with the increasing complexity of technologies,abundance of technological options, and higher cost of technological development, and globalized dispersionof technology sources, managing technology assets has been becoming more difficult for the firms. Thoughseveral methodologies have been developed, it is still lack of effective tools to identify, assess, select, andexploit emerging technologies.The objective of this research is to develop a robust decision methodology based on the real optionconcept to assist decision makers in assessing and selecting appropriate technologies that maximize learningand access to upside opportunities while minimizing costs and downside risk. This research is planned to be athree-year project (Aug. 2010 - July 2013). Since all forecasts can be expected to be wrong in significantways, it is important to create flexibility and use the real options analysis to analyze the value of flexibility.The first-year project will develop a real option model for planning and analyzing the value of flexibility fordeveloping a technology under uncertainty and determining its appropriate timing for commercialization.Building flexibility into the technology plan always incurs costs, so we need to investigate the value ofdifferent forms of flexibility and make tradeoff analysis between enhanced benefit and incurred costs. Sincethe major drawback of the real option approach is that the accurate data required to perform the real optionanalysis is difficult to obtain, the second-year project will develop a linguistic multi-criteria decision making(MCDM) framework based on the real option concept for assessing technology alternatives and selectingappropriate technologies considering the value of flexibility. Some criteria are qualitative in nature andaccurate quantitative values are hard to obtain at the early technology planning stage, the linguistic decisionanalysis will be applied to build the technology assessment model. Since multiple stakeholders are involvedin the technology planning process, the third-year project will develop a multi-criteria group decision making(MCGDM) framework extended from the second-year project for assessing technology alternatives andselecting appropriate technologies. A consensus decision process and a consensus model will be developed toassist a group of decision makers in selecting consensus technologies with the greatest potential market valueand less risks.The potential contribution of this research is four-fold. First of all, the proposed methodology based onthe real option concept can assist decision makers in assessing and selecting appropriate technologies thatmaximize upside opportunities while minimizing downside risk under great uncertainty. Secondly, theproposed new real option model will resolve the limitations of Huchzermeier and Loch's model (2001) thatdoes not consider various types of real R&D options and not well characterize market uncertainty to valuedevelopment flexibility for an emerging technology. The real options model proposed in this project willallow decision makers to determine appropriate timing and entry strategy for technology commercialization.Fourth, the proposed MCDM and MCGDM models provide new qualitative real option approaches that maybe more applicable in the situation where the quantitative information is not available or is unreliable. Finally,the proposed methodology will be illustrated by an industrial biochip technology project and the produced result will help the biochip industry better manage their technology development with the concept offlexibility.
其他識別: NSC99-2221-E005-050
Appears in Collections:科技管理研究所

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