Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/55538
標題: 高科技產業技術規畫之穩健決策模式研究(II)
A Robust Decision Methodology for Technology Planning in High-Tech Industries (Ii)
作者: 王瑞德
關鍵字: 工業工程類;應用研究;Technology planning;multiple criteria decision making;real options;linguistic decision analysis;biochip
摘要: 
技術是高科技產業為了能維持成長和保持競爭優勢的重要資產。清楚地瞭解有什麼新興技術與如何選擇與運用技術以提升產品與服務的競爭力,對高科技公司來說是非常重要的。然而,由於越趨複雜的技術、可供選擇的技術增加、更高的技術發展費用與分散的全球化技術來源,讓高科技產業管理其技術資產變得更加困難。雖然文獻與實務上已有方法論可用來進行技術規畫(technology planning),但仍然缺乏有效的工具來確認、評估、選擇、並充分利用新興技術。因應快速變化的商業和技術發展,企業應將管理彈性(managerial flexibility)納入到技術規畫中,使他們能及時根據變化的影響來重新評估和調整技術規畫。實質選擇權分析(real options analysis)是一種有用的工具,可用於探討技術規畫中不同形式管理彈性的價值,而作出適當的技術決策。然而,通常技術規劃涉及多個評量準則,而且很少有可用的數據存在於最初的技術規劃階段或收集的數據是不可靠,導致所需評量技術的資訊可能很難被準確的量化,而大多數文獻中的實質選擇權模型僅使用定量因素評估彈性價值。儘管定量實質選擇權模型具學理上的依據,但因所收集的數據是不可靠的,所得的結果可能會產生問題。因此,良好的技術規畫需在不同時點從不同構面適當考慮定性與定量因素。本研究宗旨在發展以實質選擇權為基礎的穩健決策方法協助決策者評估和選擇適當的技術以最大化學習與成長機會,並最小化成本與負面發展的風險。提出研究架構包括三個主要階段:技術確認,技術發展和技術評估。技術確認階段,其目的是建立市場、產品和技術間的聯繫以為潛在的市場機會找尋適當的技術;技術發展階段確認市場與技術的不確定性並設法規畫相應的R&D 選擇權,以探索市場潛力並同時減少可能的損失;由於技術規劃初期通常涉及多個評量準則和收集的數據往往不可靠,本研究在技術評估階段提出一個以多準則決策分析為基礎的質化實質選擇權分析方法,以評估納入管理彈性考量的技術價值。本研究提出的方法將應用於生物晶片技術開發計畫。本研究所提出的技術規劃架構提出一個系統化的流程,有助於決策者建立一個穩健的技術計劃,能夠開拓新市場機會,同時規避負面風險。此外,所提出的質化實物期權模型提供一個替代方案以解決量化實質選擇權的局限性,可適用在量化資訊不足或不可靠的情況來評選新興技術;就我們所知,很少有研究提出質化的實質選擇權方法,這項研究提出一個新的觀點進行實質選擇權技術規劃與評估,可能會啟動一個新的研究方向。最後,研究成果將可協助生物晶片產業以研發彈性的觀點管理他們的技術規畫以防範高度不確定的風險。

Technology is an important asset for high-tech firms to sustain growth and remain competitiveadvantage. It is very important for high-tech firms to clearly understand what technologies are available tothem and how to select and exploit appropriate technologies for providing their products or services with acompetitive edge. Though several methodologies have been developed in the literature, it is still lack ofeffective tools to identify, assess, select, and exploit emerging technologies. Under the fast changingenvironment in business and technology development, high-tech firms should incorporate managerialflexibility into their technology plans that allow them to reassess and adjust their technology plan in a timelymanner according to the impacts of the changes. Real options analysis is one of useful tools that can beapplied to investigate the value of different forms of flexibility that might be added to the technology plan inorder to make appropriate technological decisions. However, technology planning usually involves multiplecriteria and information needed for the evaluation of technologies may be hard to be quantified and measured,because few available data exists at the initial technology planning stage or collected data is unreliable andsubjected to change at later stages. Most real options models developed in the literature uses only quantitativefactors for evaluating the value of flexibility. Despite the economic rigor that is associated with itsquantitative orientation, the real options valuation can be problematic, as the data collected is unreliable orcollecting required data is time-consuming and expensive. Therefore, it is required to consider not onlyquantitative criteria but also qualitative criteria for technology assessment from all dimensions.The objective of this research is to develop a multi-criteria decision analysis approach based on the realoptions concept to incorporate managerial flexibility in technology planning for maximizing learning andaccess to upside opportunities, while minimizing costs and downside risks. The proposed research frameworkconsists of three main stages: technology identification, technology development, and technology assessment.The aim of technology identification stage is to establish key linkages of market, product and technologiesfor identifying appropriate technologies that can be used to capture potential market opportunities. Thetechnology development stage determines market and technology uncertainties and maps the risks required tobe managed to appropriate R&D options to increase upside potentials, while decreasing downside losses.Since some criteria are qualitative in nature and accurate quantitative values are hard to obtain at the earlytechnology planning stages, a qualitative assessment approach of the real options analysis based on themulti-criteria decision analysis will be developed to evaluate technology options. In certain situations whereonly little information is available for evaluating technologies, qualitative real options analysis may providean alternative approach that is more feasible and meaningful to be used in practice. The proposedmethodology will be illustrated with an industrial biochip technology development project.The proposed technology planning framework provides a systematic process that would help decisionmakers establish a robust technology plan to explore upside market opportunity, while avoiding downsiderisks. In addition, the proposed qualitative real options model would resolve the limitations of real optionsanalysis which is quantitative-oriented and would be more applicable in the situation where the quantitativeinformation is not available or unreliable. Finally, to the best of our knowledge, few studies have developedthe qualitative real options approach. This research initiates a new research direction that would contribute tothe literature of real options analysis.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/55538
其他識別: NSC100-2221-E005-072
Appears in Collections:科技管理研究所

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