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標題: 多產品多層次供應鏈中需求替代與其對外包策略之影響研究
A Study on the Demand Substitution and Its Outsourcing Impact on Multi-Products Multi-Layered Supply Chains
作者: 謝??君
關鍵字: 應用研究;Demand substitution;管理科學;需求替代;風險共擔;等候理論;外包採購;Risk pooling;Queueing models;Outsourcing strategies
多產品多層次供應鏈中需求替代與其對外包策略之影響研究需求的不確定性及其衍生之庫存議題常是管理者面對之課題而面對複雜的供應鏈時,此種挑戰愈形嚴苛。許多企業因此嘗試使用不同的方法並利用風險共擔(risk pooling)之概念來解決問題。在這些方法之中,雖然需求替代(demand substitution)策略經文獻驗證可協助單一層次供應鏈企業降低庫存成本,但本研究中我們將議題擴大範圍並考慮多層次的供應鏈中需求替代與其對外包績效之影響。需求替代一般是被考慮使用在多種產品之間的替換。然而,在我們的研究當中,我們主要是研究兩種產品間之替代。換言之,原先打算購買特定產品的顧客,被說服轉向購買替代產品。其結論可作為日後多產品之間替換研究之基礎。我們探索之績效衡量指標包含了安全存貨量和來自需求替代造成之風險共擔效應。我們同時藉此分析不同之供應鏈外包採購策略(包含寄售與競標)以期建立一分析架構來協助複雜的供應鏈決策。為了滿足顧客需求,企業必須保持足夠之安全存貨,而此存貨量亦受上游供應商供貨所需時間(lead time)影響。因此我們的研究模型中將利用等候理論(Queueing theory)將此多層次供應鏈加以分析。建立此分析模型後,我們得以將需求替代之影響量化,亦可利用其比較上述不同之外包策略。我們同時將此數量模型以實證模擬驗證其正確性。因此本研究中我們期望能藉由了解不同之需求替代率對安全存貨之影響,並藉此協助選擇適當之外包方式。企業經營者亦可利用本研究驗證產品需求替代之可行性。初步研究結果顯示此方法應是可行之方向。

A study on the demand substitution and its outsourcing impact onmulti-products multi-layered supply chainsDemand uncertainty frequently draws business's attention and this burden of demandvariability becomes tougher to cope with when managers face the often seen complex supplychains. Firms attempt to employ various approaches to take advantage of the risk-poolingeffect. Among the approaches, even though the employment of demand substitution, wherecustomers may switch to an available product upon stockout of another, has been previouslyexplored to demonstrate the ability to reduce the needed inventory carried by firms in thesingle-layered supply chain, we would extend the scope and consider multi- layered supplychains. In addition, in this proposed study, a framework with demand substitution isdeveloped to assess the outsourcing performance of multi- layered supply chains. Demandsubstitution is generally considered by multi-products firms. In our study, however, we limitthe products into two types. In other words, we designate a proportion of customers whooriginally intended to purchase a particular product, however, because of the firm's effort,have switched to the alternative product (or vice versa). We explore performance measuresincluding required safety stock level and the risk-pooling effect resulting from demandsubstitution. Various outsourcing/procurement strategies based on consignment stock andcompetitive bidding, are also considered and studied; we intend to propose an outsourcingframework that facilitates complex supply chains outsourcing decisions.In order to compare the various outsourcing decisions, our study examines and models themulti-layered supply chains consisting of a parent company that manufactures the end2products and out-sources part of its demand to numbers of upstream suppliers. Themulti-layered supply chains are then modeled as tandem queues; with the required level ofsafety stock that the parent company sets to satisfy the quality of its services. The sojourntimes for orders spend in the supply system are of interest. The estimated lead times givenby different aforementioned outsourcing scenarios and demand substitution rates are essentialfor the comparison of the possible outsourcing options.Through comparing the outsourcing options, one obtains the insight, numerically, on therisk-pooling effect. We shall include illustrative examples for the application of theproposed framework, as well as discrete-event simulation experiments to support ouranalytical solutions. The numerical comparison framework shall shed light on benefitinginventory systems by reducing the need for safety stock, and consequently lowering inventoryholding cost through utilizing demand substitution, which takes advantage of the risk-poolingeffect.In summary, when different demand substitution rates from one product to the other areconsidered, our objective is to develop a preliminary framework to facilitate selecting theproper outsourcing strategies for the firm's supply chain; that is for example, consignmentstock or competitive bidding. Ideally it will be demonstrated that a company can improve itsprofit by encouraging some of its customers, who intended to purchase one product to switchto another. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated in various scenarios, and based onpreliminary numerical studies, it is found to be very promising.
其他識別: NSC97-2410-H005-035
Appears in Collections:科技管理研究所

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