簡化稻米單位產量調查作業程序的可行性評估

Abstract

為節省稻米生產量調查之成本，本計畫擬評估減少現行坪割作業之樣本田數對稻米單位平均產量之估計準確性與精密度的影響，以及以「透過穀物乾燥中心收購濕穀之機制所建立的稻米單位產量調查之新規範」取代現行坪割作業程序的可行性。 首先，將由過去的調查數據，探討稻穀單位產量的機率分布特性；以建立單位平均產量之估計誤差與樣本田數間的函數關係，據以評估藉由減少現行坪割作業之樣本田數，降低調查成本的可行性。 其次，本計畫將設計一個透過穀物乾燥中心取得樣本農戶運交之濕穀重量與水分含量及/或容積重等數據，配合對應的收穫面積，推估單位面積平均產量及總產量的替代調查程序。並將在彰化稻作區舉辦試查，以評估「透過穀物乾燥中心收購濕穀之機制所建立的稻米單位產量調查的新規範」與「現行坪割作業程序」的相對效率。

With an aim to cut down the cost of rice production survey, this study plans to assess the estimation accuracy and precision of mean yield-per-hectare as influenced by reducing the number of sample farm-fields of the current crop-cutting protocol, and to evaluate the feasibility of an alternative protocol which is designed to take advantage of the Wet-Grain-Buying-System of Cereal Drying Centers. The probability distribution of the yield-per-hectare measurements will be explored via analyzing the retrospective data collected by the crop-cutting protocol in previous years. Thereby the estimation error of the mean yield-per-hectare as a function of the number of sample farm-fields could be established, and the possibility of cutting down survey cost by reducing the number of sample farm-fields could be evaluated. An alternative protocol is devised to estimate the mean yield-per-hectare using the data of weight, moisture content, and/or volume weight of the wet grain-lots delivered to the Drying Centers by the sample farmers, and the corresponding harvested area. The relative efficiency of this alternative to the current crop-cutting protocol will be evaluated by pilot surveys taken in the Changhua rice growing region.